Stat of the Day, 4th November 2015
Tuesday’s Result :
2.20 Exeter : Vibrato Valtat @ 10/3 BOG (3.17/1 after R4) : WON at 5/2 (Tracked leader until 1st, close up after, challenged 4 out, led after 3 out, clear when hit last and pecked, ridden out to win by 4 lengths)
Wednesday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Sykes @ 5/2 BOG
Sykes is a lightly raced and therefore still unexposed 6 yr old gelding who comes here having won two of his four starts to date (4121), all over hurdles with the last two being his only handicap runs so far.
He was second on handicap debut at Newton Abbot just over five weeks ago, but that was not only a handicap debut, but also his first outing for 334 days, yet was only beaten by a length by a far more experienced Nigel Twiston-Davies runner and we all know how well NTD’s horses go at this time of year, so it was a decent effort.
Sykes then won by almost three lengths next/last time out at Aintree over 3m 0.5f, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue and with Richard Johnson taking the ride for Philip Hobbs today, that adds further confidence to the selection.
Both trainer and jockey have been in fine form of late, as Philip Hobbs has saddled up 18 winners from 57 in the last 30 days (12/26 over hurdles) and 6 winners from 20 in the last 7 days (5/10 over hurdles).
Jockey Richard Johnson is 35/130 in the last 30 days (21/74 over hurdles) and 11/31 in the last 7 days (7/19 over hurdles) and together the Hobbs/Johnson alliance has 16 winners from 38 in the last 30 days (11/19 over hurdles) and 6/12 in the past week (5/8 from hurdlers)
So, Sykes is already of major interest, because of the trainer/jockey/race type combo, but as the Irish comedian used to say “…wait, there’s more!…”
Since the start of 2009, Philip Hobbs had had 42 winners from 217 runners here at Chepstow and that excellent 19.4% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 67.8pts at a great ROI of 31.25% from blind betting and I could stop there, knowing I’ve justified the pick, but seeing as I’ve bothered to dig a load of data out, you might as well have the 10 race-relevant steps I’ve researched, which are…
- male runners are 41/205 (20% SR) for 74.6pts (+36.4% ROI)
- 5 to 8 yr olds are 39/167 (23.4% SR) for 107.7pts (+64.5% ROI)
- those carrying 10-6 to 11-6 are 36/154 (23.4% SR) for 104.5pts (+67.8% ROI)
- handicappers are 19/116 (16.4% SR) for 43.7pts (+37.6% ROI)
- those rated (OR) 95 to 130 are 27/115 (23.% SR) for 70.9pts (+61.6% ROI)
- hurdlers are 18/107 (16.8% SR) for 51.9pts (+48.5% ROI)
- those ridden by Richard Johnson are 17/83 (20.5% SR) for 24.4pts (+41.4% ROI)
- class 3 runners are 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 20.1pts (+44.6% ROI)
- LTO winners are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 10pts (+30.3% ROI)
- those who last ran 6 to 15 days ago are 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 31.4pts (+142.9% ROI)
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Sykes at 5/2 BOG with either of Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, Hills, Paddy Power or Seanie Mac. I’ve used Betfair for my bet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS