Stat of the Day, 6th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2015

Thursday’s Result :

5.10 Cheltenham : Lavinia Rose @ 100/30 BOG : 4th at 7/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed and lost 2nd well inside final furlong, lost 3rd close home, eventually beaten by 1.5 lengths)

Friday’s selection runs in the…

3.30 Musselburgh :

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Kodicil @ 6/1 BOG


Trainer Mark Walford has had a rather productive week with 3 winners and 1 placer from just 6 runners over the last week, whilst during the same time jockey Jake Greenall has ridden 4 winners from 8 with two further placed finishes.

Together over the last week, they are 3 from 4 and overall Jake has ridden 9 winners from 32 (28.1% SR) attempts on the Walford string, accruing level stakes profits of 79.5pts (248.3% ROI) in the process, from which…

  • they are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 35.6pts (+161.9% ROI) in handicaps
  • and 6/20 (30% SR) for 37.6pts (++188.1% ROI) in chases, which puts them on
  • 6 winners from 16 handicap chases, a 37.5% strike rate yielding 41.6pts at an ROI of 260.1% and they’re 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 40.5pts (+578.1% ROI) this year.

Kodicil is Mark Walford’s only runner making the 190-mile trip North from Sheriff Hutton for this fixture today and in the past when mark has been represented by a sole runner at a track, that horse has won 24 of 191 (12.6% SR) for profits of 44.7pts (+23.4% ROI), broken down with today’s race in mind as follows…

  • male runners are 22/143 (15.4% SR) for 71.2pts (+49.8% ROI)
  • NH runners are 13/77 (16.9% SR) for 44.8pts (+58.2% ROI)
  • chasers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 19.4pts (+60.6% ROI)
  • 7yr olds are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 26pts (+108.4% ROI)
  • those racing over 2m4f/2m4.5f are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 41.9pts (+220.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by Jake Greenall are also 4/19 (21.1% SR), but for 38.3pts (+201.7% ROI)

Kodicil was a winner on his last run over fences, 7 weeks ago at Uttoxeter and he has kept sharp with a spin on the Flat, whilst 7 of his rivals from Uttoxeter have already tackled fences again, with 4 of them winning and 1 making the frame. The most notable run to ome from that contest was a win for Jayo Time at a higher grade than this race today, so I’m expecting the form to hold out.

As well as that form seeming to be strong, conditions look favourable too for a horse who is 7 from 25 in fields of 5 to 9 runners, 4 from 16 in cheekpieces, 4 from 15 on good ground and 3 from 11 over trips of 2m3f to 2m4.5f.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Kodicil at 6/1 BOG with either of 10Bet, Betfair Sports, BetVictor, Coral, SkyBet and/or Stan James, although the latter don’t go BOG until 10.00am. I’ve used Coral for my bet because they’re giving refunds on fallers, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Musselburgh

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Here is today’s racecard.

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