Double Dutch, 6th November 2015

Double Dutch, 6th November 2015

In what is now becoming a regular and frustrating occurrence, we had a winner and a runner-up yesterday and even the consolation of an 8.4/1 exacta from race 1 wasn’t enough to brighten my mood, as we ended up 8 lengths shy of an 11.5/1 double.

Thursday’s results were as follows:

The Cobbler Swayne : WON at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
Court Dismissed : 2nd at 10/3 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid £9.40 here.
Ready Token : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Master Neo : PU at 5/2 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
717 winning selections from 2574 = 27.86%
226 winning bets in 667 days = 33.88%

Stakes: 1333.00pts
Returns: 1426.64pts
P/L : +93.64pts (+7.02% ROI)


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These are Friday’s selected races…

2.30 Musselburgh :

Just four go to post here, but I expect an interesting tusssle between The Backup Plan and Present Flight.

The Backup Plan (9/4 BOG) comes here seeking a hat trick after successive handicap chase victories over trips of 2m3.5f. It’s difficult to assess just how much scope he has, but he does keep finding more he time he runs, which is an admirable trait.

His trainer Donald McCain has a decent record at this venue and in The backup Plan, he has a horse that has really taken to fences and who likes to dictate affairs from the front. This is a major step up in trip and might raise stamina doubts, but he did win a 3 mile PTP in 2013 and the expoerienced Brian Harding will no doubt attempt to slow the race down to suit The Backup Plan.

The extra distance, however, is set to suit top weight Present Flight, as he seemed to struggle with the slowish ground and inadequate 2m4f trip at Hexham last time out and more is expected on a faster surface and stepping back up in trip.

There was also a suggestion that after just a 6-day rest, the Hexham run came too soon after completing 2m7.5f at Kelso, where he ran out an 11 lengths winner, beating Derryfadda who won a 3m chase here yesterday, suggesting another good show from Present Flight at 2/1 BOG.


6.10 Chelmsford :

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this became a Godolphin 1-2 with Anglophile and Famous Kid filling the places today. The trainers of both horses are in good recent form and both have decent records on this track and in that respect, there’s little between them.

Anglophile (9/4 BOG) would be my preference, having finished in the first two home in each of his six outings over the last year (211212), he goes well on the A/W, runs well in small fields and with a win and a narrow defeat in this grade at 1m 7.5f in his last two starts, stamina won’t be an issue.

Famous Kid, on the other hand, hasn’t won in the UK since landing back to back handicaps in September 2014, but in his defence he has done most of his recent running in better quakity races than this one and whilst in Dubai earlier in the year was a runner-up over 1m2f on dirt and then a winner over 1m4f on turf. He was ahead of some decent horses in those runs and this drop in class might just get him back to winning ways at 9/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Present Flight / Anglophile @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : Betfred & Totesport)
Present Flight / Famous Kid @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : generally)
The Backup Plan / Anglophile @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Coral)
The Backup Plan / Famous Kid @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Coral & Ladbrokes)

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