Double Dutch, 7th November 2015

Double Dutch, 7th November 2015

A better day for us on Friday with two winners, a runner-up and a faller, who looked like he’d have won if staying on his feet.

We also landed a bonus in the shape of a 6/1 exacta and whilst it might sound a little churlish/greedy to mention it, I really thought we were going to have one of those perfect DD days with to 1-2 finishes.

Nevertheless, after what seems an eternity of near misses, it’s nice to get some points on the board. More needed though!

Friday’s results were as follows:

Present Flight : WON at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
The Backup Plan : fell at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Famous Kid : WON at 13/8 (adv 9/4)
Anglophile : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
The Exacta paid £7.40 here.

Results to date:
719 winning selections from 2578 = 27.89%
227 winning bets in 668 days = 33.98%

Stakes: 1335.00pts
Returns: 1431.52pts
P/L : +96.52pts (+7.23% ROI)

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These are Saturday’s selected races…

1.05 Kelso :

Throthehatch is a former Point to Point winner who landed a win on his chasing debut last time out. He jumped well that day and although it hasn’t turned out to be the best of races, you can only beat what you’re faced with and the runner-up has at least won a race since.

It wouldn’t be unreasonable for him to improve for the experience and with trainer Lucinda Russell’s horses in fine form (7/20) in the last week and her chasers having won 6 of 20 (30% SR) here at Kelso this year, a 9/4 BOG bet with Paddy Power on Throthehatch might prove profitable.

I did also like the look of the capable, but frustrating Roc de Prince, who has the potential to be decent but lacks consistency. Trip and conditions hold no fears for him and he gets on well with today’s jockey, but he can’t always be relied upon to give his all, which is probably why he’s as big as 4/1 BOG here today.

That said, a repeat of his last run could make that price look foolish, having stayed on well four weeks a go at Hexham to win a handicap chase by over to lengths looking like he had plenty to spare. He does have tendency to idle, but if the jockey can keep him up to his work, Roc de Prince could land back to back wins here.


2.30 Aintree :

The undoubted class act here is Simonsig and the only issue I have with him is that he hasn’t been seen since winning the 2013 Arkle 970 days ago. He has 8 wins and a second from nine career outings and is 12111 over hurdles. He’s a course and distance winner, soft ground doesn’t faze him and he gets on well with Barry Geraghty.

He’s also a Gr1 and Gr2 winner over timber, so this is well short of the heights he has scaled in the past and had he been more active of late, you’d be all over Simonsig at 2/1 BOG today. Mind yo, with a recent run, you’d not get anywhere near that price!

Purple Bay is the one that looks likeliest to derail that comeback bid and whilst he has plenty going for him, I’d not be wanting to back him at 13/8 BOG, which I feel is a little mean, but just about acceptable as half of a double. He’s a Gr 2 winner from his penultimate outing at Wincanton a year ago and he followed that up by finishing second in the Gr1 Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day with plenty of daylight between him and the other four horses behind him.

He was actually beaten by 8 lengths that day, but when you see that the winner was Faugheen, it doesn’t look too bad. That race has produced 5 further wins whilst Purple Bay has been rested and in a race, where all five runners have something to prove, he might just prevail.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Throthehatch / Purple Bay @ 7.53/1 (9/4 & 13/8 : Paddy Power)
Throthehatch / Simonsig @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : Betway)
Roc de Prince / Purple Bay @ 12.13/1 (4/1 & 13/8 : BetVictor & Stan James)
Roc de Prince / Simonsig @ 15.25/1 (4/1 & 9/4 : Betway)

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