Stat of the Day, 11th November 2015
Tuesday’s Result :
3.20 Sedgefield : Aniknam @ 100/30 BOG : 2nd at 5/4 (Towards rear, headway before 5th to go in touch, ridden before last, every chance run-in, kept on and held near finish, beaten by three quarters of a length.) Smashed SP, but couldn’t catch the winner!
Wednesday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
After Eight Sivola @ 3/1 BOG
This 5yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trickafter a win at Wincanton on April Fool’s Day and then another success last time out, but some 6 months later by 4.5 lengths at Fontwell in a Class 2 race over 2m3f, 39 days ago under today’s jockey Lizzie Kelly.
He’s 1 from 1 at today’s trip, 2 from 4 with today’s rider, 2 from 3 (311) running 30 to 70 days after his last run, 2 from 2 wearing the hood and has won on soft ground in the past.
Lizzie Kelly has 11 wins from 45 rides (24.4% SR) in hurdle races for Nick Williams generating level stakes profits of 73.7pts at an ROI of 163.8%, of which the team are 9/25 (36% SR) for 81.1pts (+324.5% ROI) at trips of 2m3f to 2m5f, they are 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 29.9pts (+186.6% ROI) on soft ground and…
Lizzie Kelly / Nick Williams / Hurdles / 2m3f to 2m5f / Good to Soft or worse = 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 77.1pts (+513.9% ROI)
And at this point, I’m convinced it’s a decent bet.
However, one micro I follow alerted me to another way into this race and the criteria are as follows… Male handicap hurdlers aged 4 to 8, rated (OR) 81 to 130 carrying 9-13 to 10-13, 3 to 60 days after a win in a hcp hurdle last time out.
Such horses are 173/841 (20.6% SR) for 132pts (+15.7% ROI) profit from blind unfiltered backing! Four simple filters you could apply are as follows…
- those who won by four lengths or more LTO are 74/311 (23.8% SR) for 80.25pts (+25.8% ROI)
- 5yr olds are 43/185 (23.2% SR) for 17.6pts (+9.5% ROI)
- Class 2 runners are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 23.1pts (+19.7% ROI)
- runners here at Bangor are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 4.2pts (+32.3% ROI)
The more keen-eyed amongst you might recall this horse being a winnr for us on SotD on that last run 39 days ago (Arc weekend), but that was from a different set of stat and the reappearance of After Eight Sivola as a pick is purely coincidental.
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on After Eight Sivola at 3/1 BOG with either of 10BET, Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Paddy Power and / or Seanie Mac! I’m using 10Bet today because they’ll refund a defeat as a runner-up by a head or less, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS