Double Dutch, 11th November 2015
After a win on Monday and then Matorico taking advantage of the leader falling at the last at Huntingdon yesterday, I was thinking our luck was in with two strong picks to come at Lingfield.
Unfortunately neither Gores Island nor Tresor de Bontee were up to the task and the closest we came to landing the double was a 13 lengths defeat for Gores Island, who had every chance, but possessed no burst of finishing speed on the day.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Matorico : WON at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Camborne : 3rd at 15/8 (adv 13/8)
Gores Island : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Tresor de Bontee : 5th at 3/1 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
723 winning selections from 2590 = 27.92%
228 winning bets in 671 days = 33.98%
P/L : +99.27pts (+7.40% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are Wednesday’s selected races…
The consistent (3 runner-up finishes in his last four starts) Mumgos Debut is likely to be popular at 3/1 BOG, coming from a yard in good form of late with 6 winners from 16 in the last week alone. He hasn’t been seen for 242 days since going down by less than two lengths at Newcastle back in March, but that run came off the back of a 396 day absence, so he goes well fresh and the third place horse that day was five lengths behind him, but has gone on to win twice since.
My slight preference however is for What A Dream at 7/4 BOG, who got off the mark in style last time out, when winning here at Ayr over course and distance by a good 10 lengths 11 days ago. He is, admittedly, 5lbs higher for that effort, but I don’t think that’s too punitive at all, considering he seemed to have plenty in hand that day. Only one other has emerged from that race, as the third placer ran at Hexham last friday and looked set to win before losing his rider at the last!
I was surprised to see Ball Hopper as long as 5/2 BOG with Betfair this morning, after the way this 11 yr old coasted to victory last time out. He was defying a 204 day absence on ground quicker than he really likes, but was still able to be eased right down, as he bolted up by 14 lengths at Plumpton over this trip 9 days ago.
The benefit of having had the run and a return to heavy ground should both be in his favour and I’d fancy him to strike again today at what looks quite an attractive price.
In opposition, I’ll take Buckhorn Tom at 100/30 BOG, who despite not having had a recent run and probably wants further than this, does have some undoubted ability and he hails from a yard doing really well.
Team Tizzard are 5 from 20 in the last fortnight and their chasers here at Exeter over the last 5 years have won 12 of 34 (35.3% SR) races when sent off at 7/1 or shorter, recording level stakes profits of 32.2pts (+94.6% ROI) and for a horse that likes the cut in the ground, this shorter trip might be an ideal way back in after 253 days off.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
What A Dream / Ball Hopper @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
What A Dream / Buckhorn Tom @ 10.92/1 (7/4 & 10/3 : Bet365)
Mumgos Debut / Ball Hopper @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Mumgos Debut / Buckhorn Tom @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : BetVictor)