Double Dutch, 12th November 2015

Double Dutch, 12th November 2015

Two races totalling almost five miles in distance and we missed a double by two lengths! That was the margin of Ball Hopper’s defeat at Exeter less than two hourse after What A Dream (3/1) had led Mumgo’s Debut (4/1) home to secure the first half of the dounle and a forecast that paid over 13/1!

Unfortunately, Ball Hopper paid the price for a mid-race flat spot and when he got a second wind, he was simply unable to reel in the winner.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

What A Dream : WON at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Mumgos Debut : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 13/8)
The forecast paid £14.29 here.
Ball Hopper : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Buckhorn Tom : 6th at 9/4 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
724 winning selections from 2594 = 27.91%
228 winning bets in 672 days = 33.93%

Stakes: 1343.00pts
Returns: 1440.27pts
P/L : +97.27pts (+7.24% ROI)


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These are Thurssday’s selected races…

1.10 Taunton :

I think a pair of LTO winners hold the key here and I’m hoping they’re the first two home today.

Oscar Jane is quickly turned out under a penalty for making all, easing down and still winning by six lengths at Towcester last Thursday to end a sequence of races where she’s threatened to win, but hadn’t quite got there over shorter trips.

She’d been a little unlucky in getting outpaced late on over 2m on two occasions and she also fell at the last when clear three starts ago. She relished the step up to 2m5f last time out and the way she coasted home suggests she’ll get three miles too and you can back Oscar Jane at 11/4 BOG.

Minella Bliss, on the other hand, is unpenalised for his win over this trip at Ludlow ten days ago, as that was an apprentice jockeys’ race, where today’s rider was claiming 5lbs. Charlie Hammond gets to use his full 7lb claim today, so the horse is effectively 2lbs better off, despite coming here off the back of a win!

He’s a gritty stayer and three miles is probably his optimum trip nowadays, ground conditions look ideal and although he’s not always the most reliable for stringing two good results together, Minella Bliss is a very handy Plan B at 9/2BOG.


2.10 Taunton :

Not the easiest to call, but I’m hoping that the favourite Ballyknock Lad might just need the run on his chasing debut despite his yard being in excellent form, so I’m going to overlook him for two others who also have very good claims here.

The obvious starting point has to be Love The Leader, a winner of three consecutive hurdle races in the space of nine days last month, before going on to score on his chasing debut at Sedgefield a fortnight ago, taking his record to four wins in 12 days since adopting cheekpieces! This 2-weeks layoff will have seemed an eternity for him and should come here refreshed and ready to go over a trip that should be far more suitable than last time out.

That chase debut was over 2m3.5f  on soft ground and a step up to 2m7f on quicker ground would (on paper, at least!) seem to be better for him, he gets on well with today’s jockey and despite a hike in weight for his latest win, still seems reasonably treated based on his hurdling record and as such, Love The Leader makes plenty of appeal at a good price of 5/1 BOG.

He’s A Bully runs off a similar mark (just 1lb lower) and also comes here off the back of a win, where he seemed to suggest his official mark was far too low, as he fairly bolted up to win by nine lengths without really being pushed at Wincanton four weeks ago. I’m not convinced a further 7lbs on his back would have stopped him that day, as he really could have won by 20 or more lengths had he wanted to and a repeat of that effort would be very interesting.

Trainer Philip Hobbs has a good record at this track, the horse gets the trip readily enough and it might just be that He’s A Bully‘s greater chasing experience tips the balance his way and if you think that’ll be the case, you can get 4/1 BOG about it being so.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Oscar Jane / He’s A Bully @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : BetVictor)
Oscar Jane / Love The Leader @ 21.5/1 (11/4 & 5/1 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Minella Bliss / He’s A Bully @ 26.50/1 (9/2 & 4/1 : generally)
Minella Bliss / Love The Leader @ 32/1 (9/2 & 5/1 : BetVictor, Betfred & Totesport)

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