Stat of the Day, 13th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2015

Thursday’s Result :

2.00 Ludlow : Helium @ 3/1 BOG : WON at 7/2 (Midfield, headway to chase leaders 5 out, led next, drew clear approaching last, eased down closing stages and still won by 12 lengths!)

Friday’s selection runs in the…

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sign of the Kodiac @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

James Given’s horses are in good nick with 3 winners from 10 in the last fortnight and the horse has two wins and two runner-up finishes from four outings on the A/W to date (2121) and was a course and distance winner in this grade 13 days ago. So, track, trip, surface and class are all fine today.

His two wins have come off breaks of 14 and 17 days, so now would be the optimum time for him to turn back out. All four A/W runs have been in small-ish fields like today and Tom Eaves has ridden all four times.

This year alone, Tom Eaves has 22 wins from 168 rides (13.1% SR) on James Given’s horses with level stakes profits of 70.1pts equating to 41.7% of all investments and as I like to do, here are the relevant facts about those 168 runners…

  • males are 20/125 (16% SR) for 92.9pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • handicappers are 17/111 (15.3% SR) for 24pts (+21.6% ROI)
  • on the A/W, they are 16/84 (19.1% SR) for 30.3pts (+36.1% ROI)
  • 2yr olds are 7/48 (14.6% SR) for 66pts (+137.5% ROI)
  • runners at 5f are 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 24.6pts (+57.3% ROI)
  • those priced 7/4 to 11/2 are 13/34 (38.2% SR) for 28.1pts (+82.6% ROI)
  • in nurseries : 3/12 (25% SR) for 3.12pts (+26% ROI)

And finally, it’s worth noting that since the start of 2009, James Given’s handicappers who were LTO winners and now return to the scene of a C&D win are 11/55 (20% SR) for 6.62pts (+12% ROI) with those running at 5f winning 4 of 16 (25% SR) for 5.11pts at an ROI of 31.9%

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Sign of the Kodiac at 3/1 BOG with any one of at least 8 firms. I’m using 10BET today, as they offer refunds on defeats of a head or shorter, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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