Double Dutch, 13th November 2015

Double Dutch, 13th November 2015

Thursday went the same way as Wednesday with a runner-up paired with a winner and us missing a double by a couple of lengths.

He’s A Bully failed to reel in the leader, no matter how hard he tried and this meant that Oscar Jane’s win an hour earlier counted for little but personal pride, as we fell just two lengths shy of a 21.5/1 double.

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Oscar Jane : WON at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
Minella Bliss : 4th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
He’s A Bully : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Love The Leader : fell at 5/1 (adv 5/1)

Results to date:
725 winning selections from 2598 = 27.91%
228 winning bets in 673 days = 33.88%

Stakes: 1345.00pts
Returns: 1440.27pts
P/L : +95.27pts (+7.08% ROI)

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These are Friday’s selected races…

1.15 Hexham :

Treacherous conditions underfoot in the North East today and that brings Sue Smith’s string of horses to the fore. Since the start of 2008, her hcp chasers are 29 from 141 (20.6% SR) for profits of 80.8pts (+57.3% ROI) on heavy ground, of which she’s 5/14 for 26.4pts here at Hexham. She has an overall good record here and jockey Sean Quinlan rides her horses well.

All this makes Forward Flight a really interesting runner here at 3/1 BOG and he’s already won his only race on heavy ground at Ayr last year. He ran well in defeat at Kelso when last seen in February and with the yard having a decent record with fresh horses, he could be the one to beat.

The consistent Mossies Well might have a say in the matter though, as this consistent sort makes a chasing debut after just four efforts over hurdles, where he won once and was placed on two other occasions. If this develops into an attritional contest, he has bags of stamina in reserve, as he stays much further than this.

Good enough to run at Gr2 over hurdles, gets heavy ground and could be leniently treated off 120, he’ll definitely want further than this in future, but as a comeback race after 231 days, this might just be what he needs. Personally, I think he’s too short at 2/1 BOG for a bet, but as part of a double is a different story!


1.40 Cheltenham :

I think this race revolves around whether the winner of last year’s World Hurdle More of That can transfer his brilliant form over hurdles to the larger obstacles and also if he can go well fresh after almost a year off the track. Track, trip, size of field, ground conditions are all ideal and you’d be all over him in a hurdle contest, but you wouldn’t be getting today’s 9/4 BOG!

As one of two choices in the race, that’s a pretty acceptable price and I’ll take a chance at those odds that More of That can jump a fence or two.

As De Mee, on the other hand, has already shown he can transfer his own good hurdling form to the fences with a decent run on his chasing debut at Chepstow a month ago. It was a similar race to today in terms of quality, trip, going etc and he was only beaten into second place by three lengths behind the useful Cocktails At Dawn.

As De Mee was staying on well that day, so an extra furlong might help his cause and it’s worth noting that Native River was a further 0.75 lengths back at Chepstow and he has since returned to win at Exeter 10 days ago, suggesting that a 7/2 BOG bet here might prove fruitful, should the favourite not oblige.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Mossies Well / More of That @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : generally)
Mossies Well / As De Mee @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : generally)
Forward Flight / More of That @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : generally)
Forward Flight / As De Mee @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Stan James)

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