Stat of the Day, 14th November 2015
Friday’s Result :
5.45 Wolverhampton : Sign of the Kodiac @ 3/1 BOG : 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leading pair, effort over 1f out, soon ridden, led inside final furlong, kept on, headed and no extra towards finish, beaten by a length)
Saturday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Herbert Park @ 5/1 BOG
This horse is both progressive and unexposed after five starts in which he has been in the first two home on each occasion, winning three times in a sequence reading 21121. He is 121 over hurdles, having won over 2m1f (soft) on his hurdling debut when beating the subsequent Fred Winter winner Qualando.
He then proved his versatility by winning over 3m 0.5f on good ground last time out when landing a novice hurdle at Kempton at the end of March. He has won twice from four races under today’s jockey Tom Scudamore and looks potentially well treated off a mark of 132 for his handicap debut.
In addition to his own proven ability, he has the benefit of being trained by David Pipe, who has a decent record at this track (particularly at this meeting) and since the start of 2010, 39 of David’s 347 runners (11.2% SR) to have run at NH HQ have been winners, producing level stakes profits of 70pts at an ROI of 20.2%.
David’s horses do so well here that there is a myriad of angles you could choose to follow to back up the selection, but I’m “only” going to give you a dozen! After all, I wouldn’t want to overload you with numbers! So, the following stats derived from the original 347 runners all apply to Herbert Park today…
- Males are 39/333 (11.7% SR) for 84pts (+25.2% ROI)
- Handicappers are 22/246 (8.9% SR) for 64.7pts (+26.3% ROI)
- Those carrying over 11st are 24/193 (12.4% SR) for 59.9pts (+31% ROI)
- Hurdlers are 16/167 (9.6% SR) for 32.2pts (+19.3% ROI)
- Those rated (OR) 120 to 138 are 20/158 (12.7% SR) for 147.2pts (+93.1% ROI)
- Those without a run in the previous 2 months are 24/122 (19.7% SR) for 142pts (+116.4% ROI)
- Those who won last time out are 12/85 (14.1% SR) for 4.5pts (+5.3% ROI)
- The November meeting runners are 16/73 (21.9% SR) for 85pts (+116.4% ROI)
- Those running over the 2m5f trip are 8/70 (11.4% SR) for 37.5pts (+53.6% ROI)
- 5yr olds are 8/60 (13.3% SR) for 24.2pts (40.3% ROI)
- Class 3 runners are 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 65.6pts (+152.6% ROI)
- Those dropping down in trip by 2 to 3.5 furlongs are 8/24 (33.33% SR) for 108.5pts (+452% ROI)
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Herbert Park at 5/1 BOG with Hills, as they’re currently the best on offer, whilst 9/2 BOG is generally available. But to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS