Double Dutch, 14th November 2015
Back to winning ways on Friday with a a rare DD full house.
We had a 1-2 at Hexham, as Mossies Well overhauled Forward Flight late on to get home by a short head and whilst I’d have preferred the placings the other way around, beggars can’t be choosers! This result kept the double alive and rewarded those doing the forecasts with a 6.66/1 payout.
And then, just 25 minutes later, not too dissimilar story unfolded at Cheltenham as More of That headed As De Mee on the run in to win by 2.5 lengths. Once again, the reverse placings would have been better for us, but it meant another forecast at 7.83/1, as well as the R4-affected double at 8.1/1.
The icing on the cake was provided for the brave bunch of you doing the forecast doubles, as you got paid out at 66.64/1!
Friday’s results were as follows:
Mossies Well : WON at 6/4 (adv 9/5 after 10p R4)
Forward Flight : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 5/2 after 10p R4)
The forecast paid £7.66 here.
More of That : WON at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
As De Mee : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
The forecast paid £8.83 here and for those doing the forecast doubles, that paid £67.64!
Results to date:
727 winning selections from 2602 = 27.94%
229 winning bets in 674 days = 33.98%
P/L : +97.82pts (+7.26% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are Saturday’s selected races…
At 15/8 BOG, De Vous A Moi was just a little too short for me to put up for either Stat of the Day or as one of my Stat Picks horses, but I really like his chances here, especially as half of a double pronged attack at this race. Progressing nicely by finishing 1122 over fences this year, Sue Smith’s 7yr old seems to be getting better and better with each run.
In addition to his improvement, Sue Smith’s record here at Wetherby over the last five years with Class 2/3 runners who finished in the top 4 last time out is 12/38 (31.6% SR) for 34.4pts (+90.6% ROI) and her Class 2 to 4 handicappers with just one other hcp outing in the past 90 days are 25/157 (15.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+37.4% ROI) making De Vous A Moi of obvious interest here.
As a backup, Elenika was worthy of consideration, but I’m concerned that he’ll be needing a run after 19 months off the track and as a result, I’ve overlooked him in favour of Voyage A New York to complete a dual French selection for this contest!
Lucinda Russell’s horses are 9/32 in the last fortnight and from her last 10 chasers to hit the track, she has 5 wins and 4 runner-up finishes! Voyage A New York may well still be a little too high in the weights, but a 3lb jockey claim will help and the 9/2 BOG on offer is reasonable at worst.
Despite being at the age of 10, Hi Vic is still unexposed over fences/under Rules, having raced just three times to date. He rounded off a decent PTP career in the autumn of 2012 with four finishes of 121P, before winning a 2m7f chase by a neck at Downpatrick in May 2013 on his racecourse debut.
He then took 22 months off, before reappearing at Southwell in March of this year, where he hacked up by 7 lengths over 3m 0.5f on soft ground and his only other run saw him beaten into second place by three lengths at Warwick, where the 3m2f trip was just a step too far. Dropping back down in trip, Hi Vic is my one to beat at 7/4 BOG here today.
Loughalder, though, won’t let him have it all his own way, as he also comes here in good recent form, having won last time out, albeit just over six months ago. That was over 3m2f on heavy ground and he has nothing to prove stamina-wise based on that effort.
Over fences, he is 3/8 at 3 miles, 3/7 on soft ground and 5 from 16 with today’s jockey and although on paper, this 2m 6.5f might be as sharp as he’d want, it might just suit him due to the softness and him not quite being race fit after a layoff. With that in mind, I think the 7/2 BOG offered about Loughalder is fair.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows
De Vous A Moi / Hi Vic @ 6.91/1 (15/8 & 7/4 : Betfair & Betway)
De Vous A Moi / Loughalder @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : Betfair & Betway)
Voyage A New York / Hi Vic @ 14.13/1 (9/2 & 7/4 : generally)
Voyage A New York / Loughalder @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Betfair, BetVictor & Ladbrokes)