Stat of the Day, 16th November 2015
Saturday’s Result :
3.35 Cheltenham : Herbert Park @ 5/1 BOG : UR at 5/1 (Held up in touch, ridden and weakened after 2 out, remote 8th when propped, went right and unseated rider)
Monday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Cornelius @ 7/2 BOG
In A/W handicaps over 6f to 1m4f over the last 5 years, horses who won last time out in the previous 3 to 45 days by 5 lengths or more, went on to win again on 67 of 256 occasions (26.2% SR) generating 71pts profit at an ROI of 27.7%. From those 256 runners…
- Those who last ran 11 to 25 days ago are 31/108 (28.7% SR) for 58.5pts (+54.2% ROI)
- 3 yr olds are 28/102 (27.5% SR) for 38pts (+37.3% ROI)
- In 3yo handicap races : 21/79 (26.6% SR) for 26.6pts (+33.7% ROI)
- 3yr olds in 3yo+ hcps : 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 9.4pts (+28.3% ROI)
In addition to those stats backing up the selection of Cornelius, we have Martin Harley in the saddle, who has become one of the better jockeys on the Tapeta here at Wolverhampton since its installation winning 24 of 150 (16% SR) rides for profits of 85.9pts at an ROI of 57.3% and his 150 rides break down as follows…
- Class 5/6 : 19/116 (16.4% SR) for 61.9pts (+53.4% ROI)
- Hcps : 17/96 (17.7% SR) for 84.4pts (+87.9% ROI)
- 3yo+ races : 14/76 (18.4% SR) for 53.2pts (+70% ROI)
- 3yr olds : 13/59 (22% SR) for 21.7pts (+36.8% ROI)
- 3yr olds in 3yo+ races : 8/34 (23.5% SR) for 28.1pts (+82.8% ROI)
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Cornelius at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor or Paddy Power, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS