Stat of the Day, 17th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2015

Monday’s Result :

4.55 Wolverhampton : Cornelius @ 7/2 BOG : 7th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong and beaten by 3.5 lengths)

Tuesday’s selection runs in the…

12.55 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Shah of Persia @ 3/1 BOG


Warren Greatrex’s runners are in prime form, as exemplified by three winners and a runner-up from five runners over the last week and he has so far saddled up 8 winners from 38 (21.1% SR) for 9.23pts (+24.3% ROI) profit here at Southwell, including a course and distance win for Shah of Persia 26 days ago.

That was the horse’s most recent outing and he hosed up by 6 lengths that day with enough in hand to suggest he can defy a rise in weight to his new mark of 121. Today’s jockey and Warren Greatrex’s most trusted rider, Gavin Sheehan was on board that day and on their return are the only course and/or distance winners in the field of five.

That race was a handicap novice chase and since the start of 2011, horses rated (OR) 96 to 122 who are running within 4 to 45 days of a win in a novice chase last time out, won again on 127 of 482 (26.4% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 132.8pts at an ROI of 27.6% and those runners are broken down as follows…

  • Class 3 : 38/157 (24.2% SR) for 72.2pts (+46% ROI)
  • 8 yr olds are 28/113 (24.8% SR) for 47.9pts (+42.4% ROI)
  • those racing over 3m are 26/80 (32.5% SR) for 48.6pts (+60.7% ROI)
  • those rated 119 to 122 are 16/69 (27.5% SR) for 60.8pts (+88.2% ROI)
  • here at Southwell : 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 7.78pts (+70.7% ROI)

And as that win was also a handicap contest, it’s worth noting that since the start of 2010, male class 3/4 jumpers aged 6 to 9 who were winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out 11 to 150 days ago are 228/675 (23.4% SR) for 216.8pts (+22.2% ROI), which is a nice microsystem that gives around 110 to 120 bets a year, but if you wanted a little less action from those 675 qualifiers…

  • those priced at 10/1 or shorter are 92/404 (22.8% SR) for 109.1pts (+27% ROI)
  • those running 11 to 30 days after that last are 74/300 (24.7% SR) for 138.3pts (+46.1% ROI)
  • those who won by 4 to 10 lengths are 65/262 (24.8% SR) for 127.2pts (+48.6% ROI)
  • 8 yr olds are 26/118 (22% SR) for 49.6pts (+42.1% ROI)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Shah of Persia at 3/1 BOG with either 10BET or Coral, whilst both Ladbrokes and Stan James offer the same price, but won’t offer BOG until the morning of the race. To see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 12.55 Southwell

P.S. When I added the write-up at 6.10pm, 100/30 BOG was available from both BetVictor and Paddy power, but my official record will show a 3/1 BOG bet.

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Here is today’s racecard.

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