Stat of the Day, 18th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2015

Tuesday’s Result :

12.55 Southwell : Shah of Persia @ 3/1 BOG : 5th of 5 at 11/4 (Led or disputed lead to 7th, tracked winner, reminder after 12th, lost place when blundered 3 out, soon weakened and behind, tailed off and beaten by 45 lengths!)

Wednesday’s selection runs in the…

4.00 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pobbles Bay @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Evan Williams  is 12/76 (15.8% SR) for 146.2pts (+192.4% ROI) with handicap hurdlers at Chepstow since 2008, of which…

  • those rated (OR) 101 to 119 are 8/38 (21.1% SR) for 67.2pts (+176.9% ROI)
  • those priced 9/4 to 17/2 are 7/28 (25% SR) for 21pts (+75% ROI)
  • those aged 4 or 5 are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 57.7pts (+274.6% ROI) and…
  • those running at Class 4 are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 47.35pts (+250% ROI).

In addition to the above track stats, Evan’s NH handicap debutants priced at 11/1 or shorter over the last five years are 12/51 (23.5% SR) for 34pts (+66.6% ROI) profit and in respect of today’s race, those 51 debutants are…

  • 8/31 (25.8% SR) for 34.3pts (+110.8% ROI) over hurdles
  • 10/27 (37% SR) for 48.1pts (+178.2% ROI) at trips of 2m3f to 3m
  • 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 20.7pts (+94% ROI) at Class 4

And finally, when employing the service of a jockey claiming 3lbs in a NH handicap, Evan’s horses have won 25 of the 116 (21.6% SR) races in which they’ve been priced at 9/4 to 8/1, producing level stakes profits of 43.8pts at an ROI of 37.8% and once again we’ll analyse those with today’s conditions in mind, as follows…

  • those racing at 2m to 3m are 24/106 (22.6% SR) for 48.2pts (+45.5% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 23pts (+54.8% ROI)
  • 5yr olds are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 15.2pts (+79.8% ROI)

And a slightly broader microsystem for these 3lb claimers : 5 to 9 yr olds running at Class 3/4 over 2m to 3m for 16 winners from 57 (28.1% SR) for 47.4pts (+83.2% ROI)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Pobbles Bay at 3/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook, whilst Betway also offer the same price with the next best being a widely available 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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