Stat of the Day, 20th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2015

Thursday’s Result :

3.30 Wincanton : Whataknight @ 4/1 BOG : 3rd at 7/2 (Mid-division, headway approaching 2 out, went modest 3rd run-in, beaten by 14 lengths)

Friday’s selection runs in the…

2.40 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tenor Nivernais @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Fairly short and sweet this time…

Venetia Williams’ string has been in cracking form of late, particularly her handicap chasers (and even more so, those returning from a break). And since the start of 2009, her handicap chasers are 182 from 1279 (14.2% SR) for modest level stakes profits of 69.4pts at an ROI of 5.42% and although this isn’t going to make us rich, any trainer who is profitable to follow blindly is worth closer examination.

A deeper inspection of her results show that certain areas are very stronger, especially in respect of today’s chosen race, for those 1279 handicap chasers are…

  • 66 from 483 (13.7% SR) for 216.4pts (+44.8% ROI) aged 8 and 9
  • 34 from 165 *20.6% SR) when priced at 7/4 to 10/1 whilst dropping down a grade/class
  • 25 from 105 (23.8% SR) for 140.7pts (+134% ROI) when returning from a break of 150 to 240 days
  • 12 from 80 (15% SR) for 114.3pts (+142.9% ROI) over this 2m5f trip
  • 7 from 56 (12.5% SR) for 24.8pts (+44.3% ROI) here at Ascot

Venetia’s 6 to 8 yr old handicap chasers priced at 7/4 to 10/1 dropping down a class 180 to 300 days after their last run are 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 35.7pts (+187.9% ROI) with a 2 from 3 record here at Ascot producing 10.65pts profit.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Tenor Nivernais at 7/2 BOG with Coral, who will offer us a refund, should he fall. Boylesports and Seanie Mac are at the same price, as are Betfred / Ladbrokes / Totesport, but neither of those last three go BOG until morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ascot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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