Stat of the Day, 20th November 2015
Thursday’s Result :
3.30 Wincanton : Whataknight @ 4/1 BOG : 3rd at 7/2 (Mid-division, headway approaching 2 out, went modest 3rd run-in, beaten by 14 lengths)
Friday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Tenor Nivernais @ 7/2 BOG
Fairly short and sweet this time…
Venetia Williams’ string has been in cracking form of late, particularly her handicap chasers (and even more so, those returning from a break). And since the start of 2009, her handicap chasers are 182 from 1279 (14.2% SR) for modest level stakes profits of 69.4pts at an ROI of 5.42% and although this isn’t going to make us rich, any trainer who is profitable to follow blindly is worth closer examination.
A deeper inspection of her results show that certain areas are very stronger, especially in respect of today’s chosen race, for those 1279 handicap chasers are…
- 66 from 483 (13.7% SR) for 216.4pts (+44.8% ROI) aged 8 and 9
- 34 from 165 *20.6% SR) when priced at 7/4 to 10/1 whilst dropping down a grade/class
- 25 from 105 (23.8% SR) for 140.7pts (+134% ROI) when returning from a break of 150 to 240 days
- 12 from 80 (15% SR) for 114.3pts (+142.9% ROI) over this 2m5f trip
- 7 from 56 (12.5% SR) for 24.8pts (+44.3% ROI) here at Ascot
Venetia’s 6 to 8 yr old handicap chasers priced at 7/4 to 10/1 dropping down a class 180 to 300 days after their last run are 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 35.7pts (+187.9% ROI) with a 2 from 3 record here at Ascot producing 10.65pts profit.
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Tenor Nivernais at 7/2 BOG with Coral, who will offer us a refund, should he fall. Boylesports and Seanie Mac are at the same price, as are Betfred / Ladbrokes / Totesport, but neither of those last three go BOG until morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS