Stat of the Day, 21st November 2015

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2015

Friday’s Result :

2.40 Ascot : Tenor Nivernais @ 7/2 BOG : WON at 9/4 (Tracked leader until 4th, tracked leading pair, led approaching 2 out, clear between last two, won very easily by 27 lengths despite being eased right down)

Saturday’s selection runs in the…

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aqua Ardens @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2009, trainer George Baker has had 53 winners from his 248 runners at this track with that 21.4% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 79pts at an ROI of 31.9%.

Of those 248 runners, there has been 12 winners from 46 (26.1% SR) on the Tapeta track for profits of 30.4pts (66.2% ROI), whilst Pat Cosgrave has been in the saddle for 11 wins from 43 (25.6% SR), producing profits of 32.9pts (76.5% ROI).

The Baker / Cosgrave / Wolverhampton Tapeta angle is worth 8 wins from just 26 bets (30.8% SR) for profits of 39.4pts (+151.7% ROI), of which they are 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 38.6pts (+321.3% ROI) at this Class 6 level and at odds of 9/2 or shorter, they are 7 from 7 for 22.3pts (3/3 @ C6).

Also worth noting is that the fact that since the start of 2008, George Baker has a good record in claiming races, with 17 winners from 69 (24.6% SR) for profits of 12.5pts (+18.1% SR). With this race in mind, those 69 runners are…

  • 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 19.1pts (+50.2% ROI) at odds of 6/1 or shorter.
  • 7/35 (20% SR) for 13.9pts (+39.6% ROI) from male runners
  • 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 4.95pts (+165% ROI) under Pat Cosgrave.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Aqua Ardens at 4/1 BOG with any one of a host of firms, but I’m using Coral, as they’re holding my winnings from Friday’s bet! To see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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