Stat of the Day, 21st November 2015
Friday’s Result :
2.40 Ascot : Tenor Nivernais @ 7/2 BOG : WON at 9/4 (Tracked leader until 4th, tracked leading pair, led approaching 2 out, clear between last two, won very easily by 27 lengths despite being eased right down)
Saturday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Aqua Ardens @ 4/1 BOG
Since the start of 2009, trainer George Baker has had 53 winners from his 248 runners at this track with that 21.4% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 79pts at an ROI of 31.9%.
Of those 248 runners, there has been 12 winners from 46 (26.1% SR) on the Tapeta track for profits of 30.4pts (66.2% ROI), whilst Pat Cosgrave has been in the saddle for 11 wins from 43 (25.6% SR), producing profits of 32.9pts (76.5% ROI).
The Baker / Cosgrave / Wolverhampton Tapeta angle is worth 8 wins from just 26 bets (30.8% SR) for profits of 39.4pts (+151.7% ROI), of which they are 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 38.6pts (+321.3% ROI) at this Class 6 level and at odds of 9/2 or shorter, they are 7 from 7 for 22.3pts (3/3 @ C6).
Also worth noting is that the fact that since the start of 2008, George Baker has a good record in claiming races, with 17 winners from 69 (24.6% SR) for profits of 12.5pts (+18.1% SR). With this race in mind, those 69 runners are…
- 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 19.1pts (+50.2% ROI) at odds of 6/1 or shorter.
- 7/35 (20% SR) for 13.9pts (+39.6% ROI) from male runners
- 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 4.95pts (+165% ROI) under Pat Cosgrave.
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Aqua Ardens at 4/1 BOG with any one of a host of firms, but I’m using Coral, as they’re holding my winnings from Friday’s bet! To see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS