Double Dutch, 23rd November 2015

Double Dutch, 23rd November 2015

The plan on Saturday was to take a tricky leg with what I saw as a banker to make the difficult leg better value and it sort of worked out. As I was extremely confident that we’d have the 1-2 at Ascot, it meant we could effectively get over 13/1 about horses priced around 3/1 in the morning and it was only a short head that prevented the 1-2 at Ascot.

Rock On Ruby did, however, win at 15/8, but that 13/1+ double never materialised, as Istimraar was beaten by a good 15 lengths and Be On Time was pulled up 2 from home.

Saturday’s results were as follows:

Istimraar : 4th at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Be On Time : PU at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
Rock On Ruby : WON at 15/8 (adv 13/8)
Brother Tedd : 3rd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
736 winning selections from 2627 = 28.02%
232 winning bets in 681 days = 34.07%

Stakes: 1361.00pts
Returns: 1457.29pts
P/L : +96.29pts (+7.07% ROI)

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Here are Monday’s selected races…

2.00 Chelmsford :

Messrs Johnston and Fanning have good records here at Chelmsford this year, both individually and as a team and will look to extend their success by landing this with the 15/8 BOG Soldier In Action, who has finished 221 in his three starts to date and now looks interesting on his handicap bow.

Only beaten by 2 lengths on debut, he then went down by just a head at Redcar after getting bumped in the final furlong before moving on to an A/W debut at Wolverhampton where he kept out of trouble by making all to win over a longer trip than today. He was clear with a furlong to run, but was getting reeled in as the line approached, so the drop back in trip should suit Soldier In Action a little better here.

Another winner last time out was Tafteesh, whose trainer Simon Crisford is having an excellent start to his training career with 22 winners from his 78 runners to date (28.2% SR), making him profitable to follow blindly, especially on the A/W, where he is 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 18.6pts (+58.1% ROI) and he is also 3 from 6 in Nurseries.

Tafteesh won by just a neck at Salisbury last time out, but was finishing well staying on and the manner of that win suggests an extra furlong on firmer ground could be the key to a win on handicap debut, also at 15/8 BOG.


3.45 Kempton :

The 3yr old grey Paddys Runner looks the one to beat here if he can transfer his juvenile form to a handicap against older horses for thre first time. That said, he is 211 over timber, all at this trip or just 0.5f further and he sharpened up for this run with a decent effort to finish 4th in a Class 3 2m flat handicap on soft ground at Newmarket just over three weeks ago when beaten by less than four lengths.

He was only 2 lengths behind Handiwork, who was 2nd in a Class2 hcp hurdle off a mark of 139 last Thursday, suggesting that an opening rating of 127 might be a little lenient for Paddys Runner here and when you add in his jockey’s 3lb claim, his 15lbs weight for age allowance and his trainer’s 16.4% strike rate over hurdles here since 2008, then a 3/1 BOG bet might be a good thing.

In opposition, we have Presenting Arms, who was six lengths clear of the progressive Rayvin Black when winning over this course and distance last year with the runner-up going on to finish second in the Grade 3 Imperial Cup off a mark of 131 and was also second off 134 at Ascot last Friday, all of which would suggest that Presenting Arms could possibly be very treated rated 127 here.

I think we’re getting 4/1 BOG about Presenting Arms, because he hasn’t been seen for 50 weeks, but his trainer, Harry Fry, not only knows how to get one ready off a break, but is also in very good form at present with his horses winning 4 from 15 in the last week alone, whilst his hurdlers finished 21511 over the weekend just gone.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows

Soldier In Action / Paddys Runner @ 10.5/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport)
Soldier In Action / Presenting Arms @ 12.75/1 (7/4 & 4/1 : Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power)
Tafteesh / Paddys Runner @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : generally)
Tafteesh / Presenting Arms @ 13.38/1 (15/8 & 4/1 : Bet365, Betfair & Boylesports)

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