Stat of the Day, 24th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2015

Monday’s Result :

2.55 Ludlow : Battlecat @ 9/2 BOG 9th of 10 at 7/2
(Mid-division, not fluent 3rd or 9th, lost place after 11th, rushed back up to press leaders 12th, struggling 13th, not much room 14th, mistake when well beaten 15th, another error 4 out, tailed off)

Tuesday’s selection runs in the…

1.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Silver @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

OK, from a stats / value odds perspective, Tuesday looks a poor day, if truth be told, but I’ve an old faithful to draw on here.

And that is the stallion Midnight Legend, one of my favourite sires, who progeny just keep winning! In fact since the start of 2008, his offspring have run 2980 races, which is a massive sample size and the 431 winners (14.5% SR) have made a £20 level stake on each of them turn into profits of a massive £14,254 at an ROI of 23.9%!

Obviously with such a huge sample size (and yes, I back them all!), there are far too many angles/subsets of data to list here, but it is useful to note that…

  • Those making their debut or who ran and finished in the top 3 LTO are 256/1309 (19.6% SR) for 593.6pts (+45.4% ROI)
  • On soft ground or worse : 133/805 (16.5% SR) for 460.4pts (+57.2% ROI)
  • On soft ground : 90/561 (16% SR) for 346.1pts (+61.7% ROI)
  • In female only races : 92/529 (17.4% SR) for 127.4pts (+24.1% ROI)
  • Hurdle races on soft or worse : 68/416 (16.4% SR) for 342.7pts (+82.4% ROI)
  • Class 3/4 hrd on soft/worse : 52/285 (18.2% SR) for 331.1pts (+116.2% ROI)
  • Trained by Jamie Snowden : 9/34 (26.5% SR) for 53.2pts (+156.5% ROI)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Midnight Silver at 4/1 BOG with Hills (or betVictor, if you prefer). Both Betfred & Totesport also offer the same price, but won’t go BOG until the morning of the race. To see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 1.00 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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