Double Dutch, 24th November 2015

Double Dutch, 24th November 2015

We do seem to be hitting quite a few 1-2’s of late and at Kempton yesterday Presenting Arms led Paddys Runner to land us a 16/1 Exacta, which unfortunately had to be the consolation prize, after our pair of “bankers” had been well beaten earlier in the afternoon.

Tafteesh proved to be our best result at Chelmsford, finishing two places and three lengtrhgs clear of Soldir in Action, but tafteesh himself was beaten into fourth place bu over 8 lengths to deny us what would have been a nice double at 13.38/1.

Monday’s results were as follows:

Tafteesh : 4th at 15/8 (adv 15/8)
Soldier In Action : 6th at 15/8 (adv 15/8)
Presenting Arms : WON at 2/1 (adv 4/1)
Paddys Runner : 2nd at 6/1 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid £17.00 here!

Results to date:
737 winning selections from 2631 = 28.01%
232 winning bets in 682 days = 34.02%

Stakes: 1363.00pts
Returns: 1457.29pts
P/L : +94.29pts (+6.92% ROI)

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Here are Tuesday’s selected races…

12.40 Southwell :

He may well still be a maiden after 6 attempts, but Nosey Barker has made the frame four times in those outings (2 x 2nd and 2 x 3rd) with his two best finishes coming at this 1m trip. The second of those runner-up finishes over a mile earned him a rating of 79 and his performance last time out, when finishing thirds over 8.5f at Wolverhampton off 77 suggest he’ll be there or thereabouts again today.

He only got run out of it late on that day and the slight drop back in trip and a 4lb easing in weight could make all the difference and should present Nosey Barker with his best opportunity to belatedly get off the mark here. He’s by Rip Van Winkle so he should be OK on this surface and he has already shown that a mile has been his best trip to date and that end, he stands a good chance here at 3/1 BOG.

The one he seems to have to beat to achieve that first win looks to be the 9/4 BOG What Could She Be, who gets 5lbs from the one above. She’s also a maiden after 10 starts, which normally causes alarm bells to ring for me, but she’s only raced three times on an A/W surface, so there’s time for her to establish herself in this sphere.

A closer look at those three runs show a 5 length defeat over an inadequately short 6f at Kempton before two efforts here at Southwell, where she has been the runner-up on both occasions, once over 7f and also over today’s 1m trip. The winner of that last run went on to win again shortly after that race and if What Could She Be runs to her handicap mark here, she looks very favourably treated to notch that first success.


2.30 Lingfield :

Sirop de Menthe is turned back out just three days after a cosy 7 lengths win at Huntingdon and although this is a step up in trip and he bears a penalty for that win, he seemes to have been revitalised by the switch to the Gardner yard this year, winning twice and finishing as a runner-up three times from seven runs for his new handlers.

He stays this far (although he hasn’t won at the trip) and the underfoot conditions should pose no problems for a horse with wins under his belt on both Good to Soft (in the unlikely event it improves here) and also on heavy ground (a deterioration semms more likely!), giving Sirop de Menthe every chance of a quickfire double at 5/2 BOG.

The obstacle barring his way is expected to be the 15/8 BOG favourite Rock of Leon, who is also up in weight for a win last time out, but crucially, that was a course and distance success, also on soft ground at this Class 3 level, from which he’s had a fortnight to get over his exertions.

And with no disrespect intended to his jockey from last time out, who just about got him to hang on for the win, the booking of Harry Skelton today has to be a positive sign. Rock of Leon is 2 from 6 in the last year, winning both of his last two runs on soft ground and we know track, trip and class are all fine for him here and I’d expect him to be involved at the finish today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows

What Could She Be / Rock of Leon @ 7.63/1 (2/1 & 15/8 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
What Could She Be / Sirop de Menthe @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Coral)
Nosey Barker / Rock of Leon @ 10.50/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : Hills)
Nosey Barker / Sirop de Menthe @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Betway, BetVictor & BetBright)

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