Stat of the Day, 26th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2015

Wednesday’s Result :

7.15 Kempton : Lancelot du Lac @ 3/1 BOG 1ST of 11 at 11/8 (Out quickly, made all, comfortable win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday’s selection runs in the…

1.45 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fountains Blossom @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Because she’s trained by Anthony Honeyball and her name flagged up on several microsystems when I was going through my data. Most of you are probably aware that the Honeyball yard is now sponsored by Geegeez, but that has no bearing on the selection.

I’ve five reasons to go with Anthony and this 6 yr old mare today, all based around data from January 2010 to today…

  1. The no-brainer : Anthony Honeyball is profitable to follow blindly in NH handicap races with each of the past 6 years showing a profit adding to up 71 winners from 310 (22.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 166pts at an ROI of 53.5%. And in Class 4/5 handicap hurdles, the team are 40/126 (31.75% SR) for 150pts (+119.1% ROI)
  2. This will be Fountains Blossom‘s handicap debut and the yard are 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 105pts (+262.5% ROI) with debutants.
  3. Those handicap debutants stepping up in trip by 3.5 furlongs or more (5.5f today) are 8 from 24 ( 33.33% SR) for 89pts (+370.7% ROI) profit
  4. Those making a handicap debut in a hurdles contest are 13/36 (36.1% SR) for 109pts (+302.8% ROI)
  5. And those making a handicap debut over fences some 11 to 75 days (48 here) after their last outing are 8 from 19 (42.1% SR) for 78.5pts (+413% ROI) with those priced at 25/1 or bigger LTO (she was 100/1 LTO) winning 5 of 8 (62.5% SR) for 67.9pts at an ROI of a mere 849.1%

And all that is without referring to jockey David Noonan’s excellent recent form and his good record for the Honeyball yard!

And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 7.20pm?

A 1pt win bet on Fountains Blossom at 4/1 BOG with Bet365, who are the standout price here with 7/2 BOG generally available, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 1.45 Taunton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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