Stat of the Day, 27th November 2015
Thursday’s Result :
1.45 Taunton : Fountains Blossom @ 4/1 BOG 2nd of 8 at 7/2 (Held up, headway tracking leaders 5th, 2nd before 4 out, challenged 2 out, every chance when stumbled badly last, hung right in behind winner and no impression run-in)
Friday’s selection runs in the…
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Present Flight @ 7/2 BOG
Firstly he hails from the in form Lucinda Russell yard, which has has 11 winners from 46 runners in the last month, of which chasers are 7 from 23.
The horse is still unexposed over fences after just three starts, but he has already won twice and finished as a runner-up in his only defeat, which came over an inadequately short trip, with his wins coming over 2m7.5f and 3m2.5f.
He was last seen 21 days ago, when winning comfortably by five lengths despite being eased right down in the closing stages and all three chase runs have been with today’s jockey.
Horses rated (OR) 96 to 122 who won a novice chase last time out in the previous 4 to 45 days are 128/487 (26.3% SR) for profits of 135pts at an ROI of 27.7% since the start of 2010, with those who raced in a novice handicap chase LTO winning 116 of 420 (27.6% SR) for 136.3pts (+32.5% ROI).
In addition to the above, it’s worth noting that male Class 3/4 chasers aged 6 to 9, who were winners of handicap chases by 2 to 10 lengths last time out are 220/940 (23.4% SR) for 196.9pts (+20.9% ROI).
And finally, since the start of 2013, in what I call the proper NH season (Oct-Mar), when Lucinda Russell sends her jumpers to race over 200 miles from base, they have won 23 of 178 (12.9% SR) for profits of 46.8pts at an ROI of 26.3%.
And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 6.25pm?
A 1pt win bet on Present Flight at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power or BetVictor, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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