Double Dutch, 27th November 2015

Double Dutch, 27th November 2015

I got back amongst the winners in race 1 yesterday as Ginger Joe made all and ran on well to land the seller at Southwell by the best part of two lengths with our other runner Powered back in third place, almost five lengths off the pace and with Ginger Joe drifting out to 3/1, we were well placed to land the double in race 2…

…where I’d identified three possibles and discarded Ballyegan as I thought he’d need the run and I was right in that respect as he weakened late on before finishing third, beaten by almost 20 lengths. Of our two hopefuls, Double Chocolate unseated his rider at the 11th, leaving all our hopes with Dawnieriver, whose price drift out to 4/1 meant we were on for a 19/1 payout, if he could hold on to the lead.

Unfortunately he was headed two out and although he rallied and stayed on towards the finsih, he was beaten into second place by alength and a half and that was that. Close, but no cigar, I’m afraid.

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Ginger Joe : WON at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Powered : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Dawnieriver : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Double Chocolate : UR at 7/4 (adv 9/4)

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Results to date:
740 winning selections from 2643 = 28.00%
233 winning bets in 685 days = 34.01%

Stakes: 1369.00pts
Returns: 1463.42pts
P/L : +94.42pts (+6.90% ROI)


Here are Friday’s selected races…

1.45 Musselburgh :

Donald McCain’s horses have a good record at this venue and in The Backup Plan, there’s a good chance of another winner at 7/2 BOG with a horse that won back to back chases at Sedgefield in August/September at a similar trip to today, but failed in his hat-trick bid last time out. He was stepped up to 3m2f and whether he’d have got it or not is unclear as he fell at the 11th fence when well clear. He’s had three weeks to get over it and provided there’s no ill effect from the fall, he should go well again.

However, he’ll have to beat the inform Throthehatch to do so. The current 7/4 BOG favourite comes here also seeking a hat-trick after a virtual stroll at Kelso last time out. He’s lightly raced (1 x bumper, 3 x hurdles) so far and comes here with a 2 from 2 record over fences and although up in both trip and weight, the manner of his run last time out suggests that this will be just another step forward in his progression.


5.15 Wolverhampton :

Air of York has already won four times this year and with finishes of 131 in his last three outings, he clearly brings the best form to the table. He won over 5f and then 6f at Chelmsford & Southwell respectively, but found 5f a little too sharp here at Wolverhampton in between those runs, yet stayed on well in the closing stages. The extra furlong is sure to help and running under a penalty, he still looks favourably treated here and is my preferred option at 13/8 BOG.

The 4yr old filly Bush Beauty is interesting here too, as she returned to form last time out to win here over course and distance taking her record on this track to 4/13 and 3 from 6 over course and distance. She’s only up 3lbs for the win to a mark of 64, enabling her to remain in this 0-65 class, but she has already won here at Wolves off marks of 66 & 67 this year, so on that basis, she’s worth consideration at a healthy 11/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows, based on prices available at 8.00am

Throthehatch / Air of York @ 6.22/1 (7/4 & 13/8 : Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Totesport)
Throthehatch / Bush Beauty @ 16.88/1 (7/4 & 11/2 : BetVictor & Coral)
The Backup Plan / Air of York @ 10.81/1 (7/2 & 13/8 : Hills & Ladbrokes)
The Backup Plan / Bush Beauty @ 28.25/1 (7/2 & 11/2 : BetVictor)

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