Stat of the Day, 28th November 2015
Friday’s Result :
3.05 Doncaster : Present Flight @ 7/2 BOG PU at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led 2nd, jumped badly right 6th and 7th and headed, tailed off and pulled up after 12th. The vet reported he’d bled badly from the nose)
Saturday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Swing Hard @ 7/2 BOG
Trainer Sue Smith is 4 from 14 in the last seven days whilst jockey Danny Cook has 10 winners from 53 over the past month so both come here in good form to combine with Swing Hard who is no stranger to this course and distance, having won this very race 2 yrs ago off a mark just 2lbs lower than today and he has shown recent signs of a return to form himself.
Moreover, Sue Smith has a good record here at Gosforth Park, with her sub-14/1 runners winning 22 of 148 (14.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 19.6pts (+13.3% ROI) since 2008. And whilst those profits are relatively modest by SotD standards, there are a few angles worth exploring from those 148 runners that apply to this contest…
- her male runners are 22/146 (15.1% SR) for 21.6pts (+14.8% ROI)
- those aged 5 to 9 yrs old are 22/123 (17.9% SR) for 44.6pts (+36.3% ROI)
- those running at Classes 2 to 4 are 18/106 (17% SR) for 29pts (+27.4% ROI)
- those carrying 10-08 to 11-05 are 17/93 (18.3% SR) for 46.9pts (+50.4% ROI)
And finally… the 5 to 9 yr old males carrying 10-12 to 11-07 in classes 2 to 4 are 13/50 (26% SR) for 61.5pts (+123% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 6.25pm?
A 1pt win bet on Swing Hard at 7/2 BOG which is widely available, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS