Double Dutch, 28th November 2015

Double Dutch, 28th November 2015

Another day of frustration yesterday, as once again we had a winner coupled with a runner-up, after The Backup Plan was beaten by almost three lengths, after being headed on the run-in to the line, which foiled our hopes of a 10.8/1 payout.

That payout would have looked pretty safe had we got through the race, as Air Of York as backed as if defeat was unthinkable and he duly made all, stayed on well and scored by more than two lengths.

Friday’s results were as follows:

The Backup Plan : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Throthehatch : 5th at 11/8 (adv 7/4)
Air of York : WON at EVS (adv 13/8)
Bush Beauty : 6th at 6/1 (adv 11/2)

Results to date:
741 winning selections from 2647 = 28.00%
233 winning bets in 686 days = 33.97%

Stakes: 1371.00pts
Returns: 1463.42pts
P/L : +92.42pts (+6.74% ROI)

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Here are Saturday’s selected races…

12.10 Fairyhouse :

The reliably consistent Miss Dinamic has 14 top three finishes from 17 starts to date and since switching to the larger obstacles in July of this year, has finished 21312 and was far from disgraced last time out when beaten by 7.5 lengths in a Grade 3 contest at Clonmel behind Vroum Vroum Mag who is now 5/5 at Gr 2/3!

Miss Dinamic had 43 lengths to spare over the third placed horse that day and with conditions set to suit her dropping back down to a mares only chase, I’d be very surprised if she got overturned at 15/8 BOG today.

In opposition, I’ll take Indian Fairy, despite her bearing a 9lb rise in weight today. I think she’s still reasonably well treated off a mark of 122 after the way she coped admirably with the soft to heavy ground at Clonmel 16 days ago where she absolutely spreadeagled the field beating her nearest rivals by 10, 29, 40, 58 and 86 lengths respectively.

With further rain in the offing, a deterioration of already soft ground will be right up Indian Fairy‘s street and she’s got a real chance at 5/2 BOG here, should the fav fail to fire.


5.45 Wolverhampton :

Lydiate has ran well in defeat in her two efforts to date, not beaten by far in either and both times not seeming to see the full 6 furlongs out. The change of surface is, of course, an unknown factor, but the drop back to 5f should be beneficial to her as she seeks to get off the mark at 3/1 BOG, but she does have a tendency already to find one just too good…

…and that could well be the case again today as she bumps into the improving and well bred Alshaquee from the inform Haggas yard who have a good record at this venue. This 2yr old has finished 842 in his three starts to date and like Lydiate above was only headed and beaten late on over 6 furlongs, so he too should appreciate the drop back in trip and Alshaquee is my marginal preference here at 2/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows, based on prices available at 8.25am…

Miss Dinamic / Alshaquee @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Miss Dinamic / Lydiate @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : Hills & Ladbrokes)
Indian Fairy / Alshaquee @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Indian Fairy / Lydiate @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor)

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