Stat of the Day, 1st December 2015
Monday’s Result :
3.50 Kempton : Golden Stunner @ 11/4 BOG 3rd of 10 at 5/2 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra towards finish)
Tuesday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Crosspark @ 2/1 BOG
1. Trainer Caroline Bailey is 7/31 (22.6% SR) for 63.4pts (+204.6% ROI) with her hurdlers here at Southwell since the start of 2014.
2. Jockey Harry Skelton rode this horse to success on the gelding’s debut under Rules over course and distance two weeks ago, taking Harry’s own record over hurdles here to 9 wins from 34 (26.5% SR) for 300.3pts (+89.1% ROI) profit since the start of 2013.
3. Caroline Bailey’s jumpers who finsihed in the top4 4 to 15 days ago are 19/69 (27.5% SR) for 22.2pts (+32.1% ROI) since the start of 2010, broken down as follows…
- males : 18/67 (26.9% SR) for22pts (+32.8% ROI)
- class 4 : 14/39 (35.9% SR) for 19.1pts (+48.9% ROI)
- won LTO : 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 19.4pts (+107.9% ROI)
- hurdlers : 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 13.1pts (+68.7% ROI)
- 2m7f to 3m1f : 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 19.4pts (+107.9% ROI)
- at Southwell : 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 11.7pts (+167.1% ROI)
4. Sired by the mighty Midnight Legend is an added bonus as his father’s offspring are curreently 431/3001 (14.4% SR) for 691.7pts (+23.1% ROI) since the tart of 2008 and that SR and ROI are pretty phenomenal off such a large sample size. Obviously 3001 runners generates a lot of potential angles, but I’m just going to explore half a dozen, as I’m against the clock tonight.
So, of the 3001 ML progeny…
- 96/670 (14.3% SR) for 251.3pts (+37.5% ROI) from his 5 yr olds
- 90/569 (15.8% SR) for 338.1pts (+59.4% ROI) on soft ground
- 102 /423 (24.1% SR) for 173.6pts (+41% ROI) from LTO winners
- 48/284 (16.9% SR) for 312.7pts (+110.1% ROI) with soft ground hurdlers
- 25/216 (11.6% SR) for 108.2pts (+50.1% ROI) over today’s 3m trip
- 19/98 (19.4% SR) for 10.2pts (+10.4% ROI) here at Southwell
And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 10.50pm?
A 1pt win bet on Crosspark @ 2/1 BOG at any one of a number of firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS