Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2015
Tuesday’s Result :
1.15 Southwell : Crosspark @ 2/1 BOG 3rd of 9 at 2/1 (Mid-division, not fluent 7th, headway on outside 4 out, every chance 2 out, 3rd and no impression on winner when dived at last )
Wednesday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Dukes Affair @ 11/4 BOG
1. Since the start of 2008, Jeremy Scott’s handicap hurdlers priced at 5/4 to 10/1 are 53/248 (21.4% SR) for 55pts (+22.2% ROI), with the following applicable here…
- males are 36/162 (22.2% SR) for 54.4pts (+33.6% ROI)
- Class 4/5 : 36/148 (24.3% SR) for 53pts (+35.8% ROI)
- 7 to 9 yr olds :37/113 (32.7% SR) for 66.2pts (+58.5% ROI)
2. Over the last three years, jockey Matt Griffiths has ridden 22 winners from his 113 rides (19.5% SR) aboard the Scott handicappers for profits of 54.7pts at an ROI of 48.4%. Over hurdles that record is 12/64 (18.8% SR) for 33pts (+51.5% ROI)
3. Since 2008, Jeremy’s handicap hurdlers running within 1 to 30 of a win last time out are 11/28 (39.3% SR) for 29.4pts (+105% ROI) at odds of 11/8 to 9/1.
4. On the occasions like today, when he only sends one runner to a track, that horse has been a winner on 56 of 322 occasions over the last five years with the resultant 17.4% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 229.7pts at an ROI of 71.4% with his Class 4 hurdlers winning 18 of 85 (21.2% SR) for 121.4pts (+142.8% ROI)
5. And on the occasions like today, when he only has one runner anywhere, that horse has been a winner on 48 of 263 occasions over the last five years with the resultant 18.3% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 252.6pts at an ROI of 96.1% with his Class 4 hurdlers winning 14 of 67 (20.9% SR) for 128.8pts (+192.3% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 7.25pm?
A 1pt win bet on Dukes Affair @ 11/4 BOG with either of Boylesports or Seanie Mac to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS