Double Dutch, 3rd December 2015
A grotesque start to my stint in the DD chair, as leg one’s pair suffered the ignominy of being brought down (officially unseated, though that is harsh on the jockey) at the first and unseating at the second. It was scant/no consolation that we isolated the winner in leg two, for our wagering lines had departed the scene a few minutes previous. Onwards, to some heavy ground most likely…
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Jayo Time : UR at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Vivaccio: UR at 9/1 (adv 11/2)
Cyrien Star : WON at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Alto Des Mottes : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 11/2)
Results to date:
745 winning selections from 2662 = 27.99%
235 winning bets in 690 days = 34.06%
P/L : +93.3pts (+6.77% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It’s personal for geegeez on Thursday, as you’ll see…
A solid looking favourite in Spending Time. David Pipe’s progressive six year old has won two of his last three starts, coping well with the soft ground last time. He’s up another eight pounds for that but still only on 112, and was actually having his first run in a chase when winning the last day. This will be his first run in an open handicap chase and he probably has a good bit more to come.
One who is sure to cope with the heavy ground if the jolly doesn’t is Aachen. Venetia’s beast is three from three on heavy, and that’s material. That trio includes a win at Sandown in a better race than this (Class 2) off the same mark of 123. Assuming the old boy – rising twelve now – retains most of his ability he’ll relish the quag more than pretty much all of his rivals.
Should we get further than the second fence in leg one, and ideally pop one in the bag, we’ll be cheering The Geegeez Geegee for the double! He’s gone up five pounds for his win a fortnight ago, and is fit and well. Carrying top weight on heavy ground is not ideal for a small horse, but we still hope he’s better than 115, and it looks a fairly shallow race. Trip, class and track hold no fears so fingers crossed. I also think he might drift a little from his current 11/8 odds.
I don’t like the second favourite, Pixiepot, at all – which probably means she’ll bolt up. But her exclusion from my calculations makes for a nice price on the other half of this pair, Falcarragh. He’s a lot lower than in his pomp – 112 compared to a win in a handicap chase last year off 129 – and the softer ground could bring him back to the boil. In fact, he’s not run on soft ground since winning on it, although he has winning form on quicker since. The suspicion remains that he may be slightly better when getting his toe in.
Richard Johnson, champion elect, rides for a trainer whose string might just be turning the corner. Of the rest, Palm Grey is feared most for a red hot trainer just now.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…
Spending Time / The Geegeez Geegee @ 5.85/1 (15/8 & 11/8 : Bet Victor)
Spending Time / Falcarragh @ 18.25/1 (7/4 & 6/1 : bet365)
Aachen / The Geegeez Geegee @ 14.47/1 (11/2 & 11/8 : PP)
Aachen / Falcarragh @ 44.5/1 (11/2 & 6/1 : bet365)