Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2015

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2015

Wednesday’s Result :

3.10 Ludlow : Dukes Affair @ 11/4 BOG 2nd of 7 at 2/1 (Took keen hold, tracked leaders, went 2nd after 4 out, led 3 out, mistake 2 out, ridden and headed before last, stayed on same pace flat)

Thursday’s selection runs in the…

1.10 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cyclop @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

1. Trainer David Dennis’ NH runners are not only in fine recent form, but they also tend to go rather well here at Market Rasen. In fact over the last fortnight, his NH runners have won 4 from 6 (11F131) with a 2 from 2 record over fences and when you add to the mix the fact that his runners priced 4/1 and shorter are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for  7.62pts (+95.3% ROI) profit at this track, then Cyclop becomes of obvious interest as David’s most likely winner from two sent here today.

2. He calls upon the services of Aidan Coleman for the 10th time over fences today and they’ve already won 3 from 9 (33.33% SR) for 7.7pts (+85.5% ROI) together (3 from 8 in hcp chases) and Aidan himself has a decent record at this venue, winning 17 of 96 (17.7% SR) over the last 5 years and at the sharper end of the market ie 6/4 to 7/1, he is 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 16.7pts (+36.4% ROI) with a record over fences of 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 8.84pts (+55.2% ROI).

3. And now back to David Dennis, for whom the last 23 months have brought so much success, especially in handicap contests where this “new” trainer has already hit 37 winners from just 243 runners (15.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 58.9pts (+24.3% ROI), broken down with this race in mind as follows…

  • class 4 : 20/99 (20.2% SR) for 22.9pts (+23.2% ROI)
  • 6/1 and shorter : 29/96 (30.2% SR) for 57.5pts (+59.9% ROI)
  • chases : 14/74 (18.9% SR) for 31.1pts (+42.1% ROI)
  • soft ground : 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 2.63pts (+6.1% ROI)
  • over the 3m trip : 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 26.4pts (+203.1% ROI)

And slightly broader/more generally, David’s Class 4/5 handicap jumpers priced at 6/1 or shorter on ground deemed worse (ie softer) than good are 14 from 29 (48.3% SR) for profits of 48.1pts at an ROI of 166%!

And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 7.45pm?

A 1pt win bet on Cyclop3/1 BOG with either of Coral or BetVictor to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 1.10 Market Rasen

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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