Stat of the Day, 4th December 2015
Thursday’s Result :
1.10 Market Rasen : Cyclop @ 3/1 BOG fell at 9/4 (Close up, tracked leader 12th, led next, clear 3 out, looked in no danger and well clear when fell 2 out)
Friday’s selection runs in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
St Dominick @ 11/2 BOG
He was a decent and consistent hurdler until taking a 6 month break in May of this year. He returned from that absence to make his chasing bow here at Exeter over 3 miles on soft ground and despite it being his first crack at fences and probably needing a run, was only beaten into second place by a head.
St Dominick then ran again over the same trip here at Exeter but on heavy ground just 11 days later (and 12 days ago!) and relished the experience and the extra test of stamina to win by 10 lengths with plenty in hand, which he’ll possibly need over this marathon trip, but a slight easing of the ground might help.
Trainer Stats : He is trained by Jackie du Plessis whose record in NH handicaps with horses priced at 7/2 to 12/1 stands at 9 wins from 47 (19.2% SR) for 20.4pts (+43.4% ROI) profit and whilst it’s a fairly small sample size, there are several aspects of today’s race that are interesting, namely…
- male runners are 9/43 (20.9% SR) for 24.4pts (+56.7% ROI)
- Class 3/4 runners are 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 29.4pts (+77.3% ROI)
- On good to soft or softer :7/32 (21.9% SR) for 15pts (+46.9% ROI)
- Top 4 LTO runners are 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 31.2pts (+107.5% ROI)
- 8/9 yr olds are 7/25 (28% SR) for 27.3pts (+109.3% ROI)
- Chasers are 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 5.6pts (+23.4% ROI)
- Here at Exeter, they are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 9.1pts (+101.2% ROI)
- and those who last ran 11 to 15 days ago are 4/8 (50% SR) for 14.5pts (+181.1% ROI)
Horse Stats : Since 2008, male Class 3/4 chasers aged 6 to 9 years old who were winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out, 11 to 150 days ago, are 276 from 1219 (22.6% SR) for 268.8pts profit at an ROI of 22.1%. So, if you thought the first sample size was inadequate, I’m sure that a micro with over 150 bets a year is big enough!
We can (and will!), of course, break those numbers down in more manageable pieces and with today’s race in mind, those 1219 runners are…
- 212/884 (24% SR) for 299.1pts (+33.8% ROI) when rated (OR) 105 to 133
- 170/650 (26.2% SR) for 235.3pts (+36.2% ROI) when running 11 to 25 days after their last effort
- 131/621 (21.1% SR) for 175.5pts (+28.3% ROI) at Class 3
- 77/839 (22.7% SR) for 86.9pts (+25.6% ROI) at the age of 8
- 15/67 (22.4% SR) for 67.3pts (+100.5% ROI) at trips of 3m4f and beyond
- 11/34 (32.4% SR) for 43.6pts (+128.3% ROI) here at Exeter
And finally, our jockey : The in-form David Noonan will negate 5lbs of a 7lb rise for our runner today and David comes in excellent nick/touch, for during the past 20 days, he has ridden 8 winners and 6 further top 3 finishes from just 24 rides for win and place stats of 33.33% and 58.33% respectively and of those 24 rides, his results over fences are 1P14713, so three wins and a place from 7.
David has had such an excellent year so far that he probably doesn’t want it to end, as he has already landed 22 winners from just 122 attempts (18.9% SR) for modest level stakes profits of 11.5pts at an ROI of 9.5%, but once again, there are certain angles relevant to this race, where David has proven strong this year, ie…
- he’s 20/82 (24.4% SR) in handicaps for 26pts (+31.7% ROI)
- at odds of 13/8 to 11/1 he is 21/71 (29.6% SR) for 58.6pts (+82.6% ROI)
- in chases, he has 10 winners from 48 (20.8% SR) for 6.2pts (+13% ROI)
- on good to soft/soft ground, his record is 11/34 (32.4% SR) for 49.2pts (+144.7% ROI)
- and when riding an 8yr old, he is 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 19.5pts (+108.3% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 8.15pm?
A 1pt win bet on St Dominick @ 11/2 BOG, a price available with around 10 different firms at the time I posted this, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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