Stat of the Day, 5th December 2015
Friday’s Result :
1.40 Exeter : St Dominick @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 7/1 (Held up in rear, headway 14th, chased leaders next, came wide into straight, weakened 3 out, tailed off)
Saturday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Virgilio @ 11/4 BOG
I’ve based the selection on the following trainer, horse and track stats…
Trainer Stats : Dan Skelton’s NH handicappers priced at 12/1 or shorter have won 85 of their 378 races (22.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 54.9pts at an ROI of 14.5% with a whole host of profitable angles that can be derived from those 378 runners, but with today’s contest in mind…
- hurdlers are 37/168 (22% SR) for 42.6pts (+25.4% ROI)
- class 1 & 2 runners are 15/93 (16.1% SR) for 34.4pts (+37% ROI)
- on soft ground : 17/88 (19.3% SR) for 37pts (+42% ROI)
- 6yr olds are 26/85 (30.6% SR) for 30.7pts (+36.1% ROI)
- LTO winners are 23/83 (27.7% SR) for 9.9pts (+12% ROI)
- at this 2m4f trip : 15/51 (29.4% SR) for 24.9pts (+48.8% ROI)
- those returning from a break of 150 to 240 days are 11/39 (28.2% SR) for 54.5pts (+139.8% ROI)
- here at Aintree : 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 12.7pts (+115.7% ROI)
Horse Stats : Virgilio was a course and distance winner last time out, albeit 204 days ago, taking his UK record to 2 from 2, both over hurdles, after winning on debut at Warwick on soft ground. Further evidence of him being suited by conditions is the fact that he also won over hurdles on very soft ground at Sables D’Olonne in a very beautiful part of Western France.
Also, former course and distance winners who were also LTO winners anywhere are 281 from 1443 (19.5% SR) for profits of 190pts (+13.2% ROI), which is a very decent set of figures, but can once again be improved in reference to this contest ie…
- 5/6 yr olds are 129/569 (22.7% SR) for 157.3pts (+27.8% ROI)
- Class 1 to 3 runners are 94/474 (19.8% SR) for 201.6pts (+42.6% ROI)
- On soft ground or worse : 105/463 (22.7% SR) for 66.2pts (+14.4% ROI)
- over trips of 2m4f to 2m6f : 78/377 (20.7% SR) for 136.1pts (+36.1% ROI)
- those returning from an absence of 180 to 365 days : 13/54 (24.1% SR) for 55.1pts (+102% ROI)
- here at Aintree : 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 14.7pts (+98.2% ROI)
And the track stats : Since the start of 2010, favourites in handicap hurdles here at Aintree have been successful on 23 of 73 occasions (31.5% SR) for profits of 21pts (+28.8% ROI), broken down as follows…
- at odds of 6/5 to 5/1 : 23/67 (34.3% SR) for 27pts (+40.3% ROI)
- males are 21/63 (33.33% SR) for 21.7pts (+34.5% ROI)
- at 2m4f : 12/35 (34.3% SR) for 19.4pts (+55.5% ROI)
- LTO winners : 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 7.2pts (+20.6% ROI)
- 6yr olds are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 17.2pts (+66.1% ROI)
- those returning from a break of 120 to 300 days are 9/15 (60% SR) for 19.2pts (+128% ROI)
- Dan Skelton’s runners are 2 from 3 (66.7% SR) for 2.02pts (+67.4% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 10.15pm?
A 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 11/4 BOG, a price available with around 5 different firms at the time I posted this, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS