Stat of the Day, 7th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2015

Saturday’s Result :

2.45 Aintree : Virgilio @ 11/4 BOG 1st of 9 at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, took keen hold, challenged 2 out, soon led, ridden clear from last, easily won by eight lengths)

Monday’s selection runs in the…

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aleator @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2008, Sir Mark Prescott’s A/W handicappers priced at 9/1 and shorter are 116/440 (26.4% SR) for 51.9pts (+11.8% ROI) profit, with those runners broken down as follows…

• 3 yr olds are 77/268 (28.7% SR) for 54.8pts (+20.4% ROI)
• ridden by Luke Morris : 52/167 (31.1% SR) for 41.8pts (+25% ROI)
• racing 11 to 25 days after their last run : 43/166 (25.9% SR) for 64.6pts (+38.9% ROI)
• at Lingfield : 33/107 (30.8% SR) for 37.3pts (+34.9% ROI)
• dropping in class : 32/96 (33.3% SR) for 54.4pts (+56.7% ROI)

And from the above, we can come to a situation where Luke Morris has ridden 35 winners from 97 (36.1%$ SR) rides on Sir Mark’s sub-10/1 3 yr olds who ran in the past 45 days, producing 43.5pts profit at an ROI of 44.9%.

Of those 97 runners, the partnership is 11/28 (39.3% SR) for 8.3pts (+29.6% ROI) here at Lingfield and 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) for 20.3pts (+96.8% ROI) when dropping in class.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 9.40pm?

A 1pt win bet on Aleator @ 3/1 BOG, a price available from Bet365 with 11/4 BOG being offered in most other places, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.