Double Dutch, 8th December 2015

Double Dutch, 8th December 2015

We’re in a slump at the moment, for sure. The macro picture is reasonable but recent results have been awful. The thing which is both frustrating and heartening in equal measure is that nothing changes in the selection process through good times and bad. What put most of 120 points on the board has taken most of 35 points off recently.

It’s a major correction, and we’re intent on fighting back. I hardly need tell you that we had a pair of second’s yesterday.

Monday’s results were as follows:

Mountain Fighter: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Gingili: UP at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Thermal Column: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Chefchaouen : 4th at 11/4 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
746 winning selections from 2678 = 27.86%
235 winning bets in 694 days = 33.86%

Stakes: 1387.00pts
Returns: 1472.3pts
P/L : +85.3pts (+6.15% ROI)

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Jumping in the mud today…

12.40 Fontwell:

An uncompetitive looking mares’ hurdle to start. Alan King has both excellent recent form and long-term track form, and he saddles the decent bumper mare, Katie Too. She needed every soft yard of Newbury’s extended two mile trip to get home in front, and was far from disgraced in a Listed race at Aintree on ground that was probably too quick. Back in the quag, if she jumps she probably wins.

If she doesn’t, Drumviredy probably wins. Her bumper win was on soft and over this trip at Exeter, and her trainer, Venetia Williams remains in excellent form. It won’t be easy for the mare to give five pounds to the favourite, but she’s already proven she can jump.


2.20 Uttoxeter:

A good class novices’ handicap chase in heavy ground, April Dusk is a very interesting contender. Having acquired his handicap rating of 125 over hurdles, he makes his debut in a handicap over fences. These types always catch my eye, and he has apparently schooled very well. Speaking to the owner’s racing manager yesterday, they are very hopeful.

The horse has form to support that aspiration, notably a five length maiden hurdle win over this distance and on this track. It can’t be soft enough for him apparently, so the rain ought to hold no fears.

The best backed this morning, and a likely pace angle, is Nick Williams’ Abracadabra Sivola. The trainer has been in magic form (groan) of late, and while this lad has found winning difficult since taking the Victor Ludorum Hurdle at Haydock last season, he’s dropped almost a stone in the weights for a series of placed efforts.

Probably best in small fields where he can try to dominate, he will have to get the better of Grove Silver in the early running. If he can do that, he can put the benefit of experience over fences to good use and may be the hare for April Dusk’s chase.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Katie Too/ April Dusk @ 5.34/1 (6/5 & 15/8 : PP)
Katie Too / Abracadabra Sivola @ 8.9/1 (6/5 & 7/2 : general)
Drumviredy / April Dusk @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : bet365, betvictor, Lads, Betbright)
Drumviredy / Abracadabra Sivola @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : bet365)

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