Stat of the Day, 12th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2015

Friday’s Result :

2.55 Cheltenham : Monbeg Gold @ 9/2 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Held up towards rear, headway after 2 out, not fluent last, no extra flat)

Saturday’s selection runs in the…

1.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Alder Mairi @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 8yr old mare is trained by Seamus Mullins whose record on heavy ground stands at 26 winners from 172 runners (15.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 250.4pts (+145.6% ROI) since the start of 2008.

He has also done pretty well of late here at Lingfield with 9 winners from 70 (12.9% SR) for 88.6pts (+126.5% ROI), with today’s jockey Andrew Thornton riding 5 winners from 23 (21.7% SR) for 56.1pts at an ROI of 243.8%.

And as for Alder Mairi herself, she’s certainly no mug and conditions should really suit her here today, as she’s 4 from 8 on heavy ground, 3 from 9 at this grade, 2 from 5 at today’s trip and 1 from 1 on this track.

She also comes here off the back of a crushing 17 lengths victory over today trip on similarly heavy ground at Wincanton three weeks ago, a win made all the more impressive by the fact she lost an iron with 4 fences still to jump.

So, whilst a 10lb hike in weight might seem excessive at first glance, she really did have loads in hand that day and today’s revised mark of 114 is still 6lbs lower than her highest winning mark over hurdles and some 11lbs lower than her last hurdles run in a Listed contest at Cheltenham last year, all of which suggests she may very well still be ahead of the assessor.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 9.55pm?

A 1pt win bet on Alder Mairi @ 5/2 BOG with a number of firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering…

…click here for the betting on the 1.10 Lingfield

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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