Double Dutch, 14th December 2015
The second day of my current stint went exactly the same way as my first. That’s one winner couple with a third placed horse and a loss of two points.
The current cold spell continues, I’m afraid, but I’m hopeful of a change in fortunes on this milestone 700th set of selections.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Fruity O’Rooney : 3rd at 7/1 (adv 4/1)
Saint Raph : 5th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Southfield Theatre : WON at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
It’s A Close Call : fell at 15/8 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
752 winning selections from 2698 = 27.87%
236 winning bets in 699 days = 33.76%
P/L : +78.6pts (+5.63% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is a poor looking race and Captainofindustry‘s win at Taunton last time out is clearly the best piece of recent form on offer. He has come on for a switch in yard and the move into handicap company with two solid runs before that win 18 days ago. He’s clearly liking life in the Pitman yard and has the benefit of Denis O’Regan in the saddle today.
It’s the jockey’s only ride of the day and he’ll be seeking to improve upon a 20% strike rate at this venue over the last 5 years with a win at 2/1 BOG.
The fact I’m also taking a horse with three falls in his last six runs shows the lack of depth in the contest, but on the hand, the 7/2 BOG Saint John Henry has won 3 of his last seven, so I suppose it’s a case of which angle you look at! He has struggled to see out 3 miles and beyond after back to back wins moved from a mark of 106 to 124, but a 2lb drop in weights and the step back in trip could see him in a different light today.
He does his best work with Tom Scudamore (3/6), and being by Saint des Saints he loves the mud.
Trainer Alex Dunn doesn’t have the biggest string of runners at her disposal, but she seems to get the best of out the ones she runs and the market is usually a good guide to her runners’ chances and with her chasers priced at 11/2 and shorter, she has 6 winners from 17 (35.3% SR) for 16.3pts (+95.7% ROI) over the last two years and stands a good chance of improving those numbers with a 2/1 BOG win for Black Narcissus, who was a decent third last time out.
That run almost three weeks ago was not only this 6yr old mare’s chasing debut, but also her first outing for eight months, so not only should she benefit from the experience of the bigger obstacles, she should strip fitter for the run.
In opposition, I’m siding with the 11yr old Ball Hopper, who I feel stll has at least one more win to give and he’s actually in decent form. He’s lightly raced with just 18 starts under Rules and was a 14 lengths course and distance winner in this grade two starts ago, despite coming off the back of a 204 day absence. He was possibly turned out too quickly when a runner-up just 7 days later at Exeter last time out, though.
But, he did still finish second, just two lengths adrift, despite a step up in class and a 7lb rise in weight. He’s back down in Class 5 company at a familiar venue and I expect the old boy to go well again here at 7/2 BOG, having had a bit longer (33 days) to recover this time.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…
Captainofindustry / Black Narcissus @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Captainofindustry / Ball Hopper @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet & BetVictor)
Saint John Henry / Black Narcissus @ 12.5/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Saint John Henry / Ball Hopper @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : generally)