Stat of the Day, 15th December 2015
Monday’s Result :
1.50 Plumpton : Reblis @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, outpaced 13th, plugged on, left a modest 3rd approaching the last)
Tuesday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Noblest @ 7/2 BOG
This 3yr old filly was a winner here last time out, 33 days ago, over 7 furlongs on her first visit to this venue and also her first run for new trainer Jamie Osborne. She made all that day and pulled clear in the final furlong impressively to win by 8 lengths going away and the manner of that win suggests an extra furlong and an opening mark of 72 are both well within her grasp.
Since 2008, Jamie Osborne’s 2 to 4 yr olds running over trips of 5f to a mile in Class 5/6 contests here at Southwell are 20/69 (29% SR) for 6.6pts profit (+9.6% ROI) when sent off at odds of 15/2 and shorter, whilst his fillies make up 9 of those winners from 27 runners (33.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 7.54pts at an ROI of 27.9%.
More telling possibly, are the stats surrounding comfortable LTO winners returning to A/W action relatively quickly, where the general figures show that A/W handicappers racing over 6f to 1m4f, 3 to 45 days after a win by 5 lengths or more are 177/598 (29.6% SR) for 32.7pts (+5.5% ROI) since the start of 2008.
And whilst that 5.5% ROI doesn’t quite get my heart racing, when we take a closer look at how those runners equate to this particular contest, there are some interesting (to me, anyway!) angles with decent enough sample sizes we can profit from, namely…
- those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 176/544 (32.4% SR) for 71.4pts (+13.1% ROI)
- those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO : 109/345 (31.6% SR) for 39.4pts (+11.4% ROI)
- those now running at 6f to 1m : 93/296 (31.4% SR) for 32.9pts (+11.1% ROI)
- 3 yr olds are 83/251 (33.1% SR) for 43.7pts (+17.4% ROI)
- those running 21 to 45 days since their last run are 33/146 (22.6% SR) for 35.8pts (+24.5% ROI)
- and those running at Southwell are 49/133 (36.8% SR) for 15.7pts (+11.8% ROI)
If you wanted to combine the odds, winning margin, race distance, age and days since run, you could go along these lines for a decent return…
…2 to 6 yr olds priced at 10/1 and shorter running over 6f to 1m 2.5f, 11 to 45 days after a win by 4 to 10 lengths. This will give you 56 winners from 209 runners (26.8% SR) and level stakes profits of 96.8pts at an ROI of 46.3%.
If, like me, you believe Wolverhampton to be a different kettle of fish to the other UK A/W tracks, then omitting that track from the above 209-runner micro-system, you’ll be left with 47 winners from 157 runners (28.7% SR) and 101.5pts (+64.7% ROI) profit.
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 6.00pm?
A 1pt win bet on Noblest @ 7/2 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook and/or SkyBet to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS