Stat of the Day, 16th December 2015
Tuesday’s Result :
1.00 Southwell : Noblest @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, chased leaders, lost place well over 3f out, tailed off, reported to be lame)
Wednesday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
New Rich @ 11/2 BOG
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton’s All-Weather handicappers have won 29 of their 222 races (13.1% SR) for 45.9pts profit over the last four years and a 20.7% ROI from blind backing is not only excellent on its own, but also provides a really good starting point to drill into the more profitable areas of Eve’s runners.
So, of those 222 runners since the start of 2012…
- Class 5 to 7 : 23/157 (14.6% SR) for 63.4pts (+40.4% ROI)
- Rated (OR) 54 to 72 : 22/139 (15.8% SR) for 77pts (+55.4% ROI)
- Males : 21/129 (16.3% SR) for 36.7pts (+28.4% ROI)
- Over 6/7 furlongs : 21/119 (17.6% SR) for 70.8pts (+59.5% ROI)
- Ridden by John Fahy : 18/95 (19% SR) for 46.7pts (+49.1% ROI)
- Running 21 to 45 days since their last run : 16/86 (18.6% SR) for 97.4pts (+113.2% ROI)
- Here at Lingfield : 10/64 (15.6% SR) for 16.4pts (+25.6% ROI)
Eve Johnson Houghton’s male, Class 5 to 7, A/W handicappers, rated 54 to 70, running over trips of 6 and 7 furlongs are 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 52.7pts (+125.6% ROI) with John Fahy riding 9 winners from 27 (33.33% SR) for 44.2pts (+163.6% ROI) and Lingfield supplying 3 victories from 12 (25% SR) and 15.5pts (+128.9% ROI) profit.
In addition to that general performance, when John Fahy has ridden Eve’s horses here at Lingfield, they have won 10 of 49 (20.4% SR) for 70pts (+142.9% ROI) profit, broken down as follows…
- 9/34 (26.5% SR) for 36.3pts (+106.7% ROI) in handicaps
- 6/30 (20% SR) for 59pts (+196.7% ROI) from male runners
- 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 63pts (+242.4% ROI) over 6 and 7 furlongs.
Johnson/Fahy/Lingfield/ 6f & 7f / hcps : 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 21.3pts (+112% ROI)
And New Rich in 5 from 19 over 6f on the A/W, 5 from 14 in Class 6 handicaps, 4 from 16 under John Fahy and 2 from 2 in the month of December.
And when John Fahy has ridden New Rich in 6f A/W handicaps, they are 4 from 10 for 22pts profit with a 2/2 record in December.
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 8.00pm?
A 1pt win bet on New Rich @ 11/2 BOG with any one of about a dozen firms, to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS