Double Dutch, 17th December 2015
After several days of banging on the door and coming up a little short, we landed our first double of the week, but we’re not getting too excited just yet. Advised runners at 7/4 & 9/4 aren’t going to mkae us rich nor do they miraculously transform what are pretty poor figures of late, but I hope it’s the start of a period of recovery and a half point drift on our first winner certainly helped.
So, two winners at 9/4 gives a double at 9.56/1 and with us also bagging the runner-up in race 1, a forecast just north of 17/2 was also there to be had.
A good/satisfactory day, if not a spectacular one, hopefully more to come and soon!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Sir Valentino : WON at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Jayo Time : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
The forecast paid £9.59 here to a £1 stake
Exmoor Mist : WON at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Allow Dallow : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
756 winning selections from 2710 = 27.86%
237 winning bets in 702 days = 33.67%
P/L : +77.88pts (+5.55% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’m becoming a big fan of trainer Ben Pauling and his yard is certainly bang in form with 6 winners and 3 placers from 19 runners in the last month, whilst his chasers have 3 wins and a runner-up finish from 7 starts in the last week alone. He runs Newton Thistle here, a horse who is 2 from 3 over fences here at Towcester (2/2 at C&D), he’s 2/4 under today’s jockey and loves soft ground, saving his best efforts for December/January.
He travelled really well until coming down late on at Chepstow 6 weeks ago, when understandably tiring from a first run in 8 months, but provided there are no after-effects from the fall, I’d expect Newton Thistle to be on the premises today at 9/4 BOG.
In his way is likely to be Smart Exit, who seems to be getting his act together again since a switch of yard/jockey. He’s had two runs since the move to Stuart Edmunds with Ciaran Gethings in the saddle, a jockey who is excellent value for his 5lb claim (3 wins and 3 other top 3 finishes from 9 rides over fences in the last month), finishing as a runner-up at Chepstow on both occasions, including a really good run on heavy ground last time out.
Smart Exit is a former course and distance winner too, has won over shorter trips, but also stays 3m 6.5f, likes the soft ground and is a decent option here at 5/2 BOG.
Countermand is really interesting here coming off the back of breaking his duck in a course and distance maiden just over three weeks ago, when he absolutely spreadeagled a field of seven, beating his nearest rival by 11 lengths having coasted the last 3 furlongs! The runner up, Rebel Collins, then won by 4 lengths next time out, so an opening mark of 82 for his handicap debut might not be beyond our runner here.
Andrew Balding’s runners tend to go well here at Southwell and as a 3yr old, Countermand gets a very useful 5lbs weight for age allowance, which should tip things in his favour, making him, the likeliest to succeed at 9/4 BOG.
Serenity Now is the one I expect to put up the best fight in opposition, this tough versatile 7yr old has won over 2m and 2m4f in handicap hurdles, and as well as winning over 1m6f in a handicap at Redcar, has two wins over today’s trip with a record of 2131 in four starts over course and distance.
He was only beaten by just over a length last time out, but that was over 1m6f here and the drop back in trip is sure to help today and with Callum Shepherd claiming 7lbs, he receives bundles of weight from most of his rivals, giving Serenity Now a decent shot at 11/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…
Newton Thistle / Countermand @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Ladbrokes, BetVictor & Betway)
Newton Thistle / Serenity Now @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Betway)
Smart Exit / Countermand @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : Stan James, Ladbrokes, BetVictor & Betway)
Smart Exit / Serenity Now @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Betbright, Betway & Boylesports / Seanie Mac)