Stat of the Day, 18th December 2015
Thursday’s Result :
2.50 Exeter : Tolkeins Tango @ 5/2 BOG PU at 5/2 (Chased leaders, weakened before 5 out, behind when pulled up before 3 out)
Friday’s selection runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Ozzy Thomas @ 3/1 BOG
This 5yr old gelding has proven to useful and versatile in his doszen outings to date, winning one of his two bumpers and finishing as runner-up in the other. He ten raced 8 times over hurdles winning once and making the frame on four other occasions, before a recent switch to the larger obstacles.
He has finished second in both chases starts to date, both at this Class 3 level and over 2m on soft ground, notably staying on well last time out when getting within 1.75 lengths of the in-form Sir Valentino 16 days ago. The latter has since stepped up to Class 2 and won again as recently as Wednesday, suggesting Ozzy Thomas’ effort last time was a decent one.
Other than this collateral form, he has the benefit of being trained by Henry Oliver, one of that rare breed of trainers who is profitable to follow blindly after more than 250 runners. More precisely, 277 runners to date, from which there has already been 44 winners (15.9% SR) and profits of 106.7pts at an ROI of 38.5% from level stakes betting : impressive stuff!
There are, however, certain angles to explore that would maximise return from a smaller number of bets, for example…
- male runners are 40/247 (16.2% SR) for 121.3pts (+49.1% ROI)
- those running at 2m to 2m 4.5f are 43/226 (19% SR) for 153.5pts (+67.9% ROI)
- handicappers are 41/204 (20.1% SR) for 81.6pts (+40% ROI)
- those racing 16 to 45 days since their last run are 30/151 (19% SR) for 141.7pts (+93.9% ROI)
And a simple to follow Henry Oliver micro-system? Go on then, it’s almost Christmas! 😀
Henry Oliver’s male handicappers racing over 2 miles to 2m 4.5f, 11 to 45 days since their last outing are 29/107 (27.1% SR) for 117.3pts (+109.6% ROI). Today’s jockey Jaems Davies is 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 67.6pts (+37% ROI) from those 107 runners.
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 10.10pm?
A 1pt win bet on Ozzy Thomas @ 3/1 BOG with any one of at least eight firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS