Stat of the Day, 28th December 2015
Saturday’s Result :
3.00 Sedgefield : Gunner Lindley @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Chased leaders, driven after 3 out, one pace next, ridden and kept on flat, not reach leaders)
Monday’s runner goes in the…
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Prairie Town @ 7/1 BOG
Tony Carroll’s horses seem to be coming back into some kind of form and the yard had a couple of winners last week to back up that thought, whilst here at Leicester over the last 4 yrs, the yard’s runners priced at 12/1 and shorter are 8 from 47 (17% SR) for 23.4pts (+49.8% ROI) with male runners winning 8 of 45 (17.8% SR) for 25.4pts (+56.4% ROI)
Lee Edwards has ridden 7 winners from 32 (21.9% SR) of the original 47 for profits of 29pts (+90.7% ROI), whilst at Classes 3 & 4, these horses are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 32.7pts (+116.6% ROI).
Carroll / Edwards / Leicester / Males / Class 3&4 at 9/2 to 12/1 = 5/17 (29.4% SR) for 34.3pts (+201.6% ROI)
Tony’s NH runners also go well on heavy ground and at those 9/2 to 12/1 odds mentioned above, they are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 44.2pts (+119.4% ROI) profit, broken down as follows…
- handicaps : 7/32 (21.9% SR) for 43.1pts (+134.7% ROI)
- hurdles : 5/26 (19.2% SR) for 24.6pts (+94.8% ROI)
- ran on soft/heavy LTO : 4/18 (22.2% SR) for 26.1pts (+144.9% ROI)
- ridden by Lee Edwards : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 30.8pts (+220.2% ROI)
- at the 2m trip : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 27.5pts (+196.2% ROI)
- Class 3 : 3/10 (30% SR) for 17.53pts (+175.3% ROI)
And Prairie Town has one win and a runner-up finish (beaten by a neck a week ago) from 2 starts on heavy ground, so conditions should be ideal for a horse that has also won at this Class 3 level (has also ran at C2 and Gr1!), has won on soft ground and is 2 from 5 over two miles. He’s also one from two going right handed and a 12-runner field shouldn’t pose a problem, as he’s won a 14-runner contest in the past.
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 9.25pm is…
A 1pt win bet on Prairie Town and that’s at 7/1 BOG with with either BetVictor or Paddy Power, whilst Betway will go BOG in the morning so I advise you to…
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