Double Dutch, 28th December 2015
As seems to have been the case for much of December, Saturday was yet another of those 1 winner from 2 days. Our first race didn’t quite turn out to be the two-horse affair I predicted, but a 9/4 winner and a third placed finish was certainly good enough for us, giving me confidence of taking a payout from race 2.
Of course, it didn’t quite go that way and both our runners surprisingly toiled in the closing stages, eventually finishing out of the frame in 4th & 5th places, beaten by 10.25 & 17.25 lengths respectively, sending me back to think again!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Tea for Two : WON at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Native River : 3rd at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Arthamint : 4th at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Minellaforlunch : 5th at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
763 winning selections from 2734 = 27.91%
238 winning bets in 708 days = 33.62%
P/L : +75.51pts (+5.34% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Road To Respect makes his third start over hurdles and has alrewady finished as a runner-up twice and can consider himself unlucky to have to been put up against the highly-rated Yorkhill (who was taking his own career record to 3 from 3) last time out. Despite the two defeats, he has shown some promise/ability and since that run three weeks ago, the third placed horse (10 lengths further back) has reappeared to win at Thurles by 16 lengths.
No “wonder horse” in opposition here today means that Road To Respect has an excellent chance of breaking his duck at 13/8 BOG, providing he can see off the challenge of Bellow Mome, an interesting French import to the Mullins yard. This one now runs for the first time since a decent third place on testing ground at Cholet in France in a race where the runner-up went on to rattle off a hat-trick of wins after that contest.
Obviously no Irish form to report on, but providing he’s ready to race after a 435 day absence, Bellow Mome might well surprise a few people here, as he’s sure to cope with the ground well enough and is therefore my alternate at 11/4 BOG.
The end of the year seems to be the best time to catch the 10yr old Kerryhead Storm, for although his last couple of runs in November weren’t the best, he did complete a sequence of finishes reading 1211 (including a C&D win on his only ever visit to this track) at the start of 2015. Looking at his profile gives the impression that conditions should suit him today and a bet at 7/2 BOG might not be a bad call about a horse who is…
…3/8 over fences, all with today’s jockey, of which he’s 3/7 at 16/16.5f, has a win and a runner-up finish from two soft ground runs, he’s 2 from 2 at 4/1 and shorter, 2 from 2 in fields of six or less, 3 from 5 within 40 days of his last run, 3 from 7 going right handed and 3 from 7 wearing a tongue tie and I’m sure Kerryhead Storm would be a shorter price, but for the presence of Moscow Me here today.
Moscow Me is of immediate interest to me, beacuse he’s trained by Henry Oliver, whose handicappers are profitable to follow blindly. This horse has already suggested that he’ll be a better chaser than he was a hurdler, yet he still won a couple of handicap hurdles before an 18-month break in 2014/15. This will be only his third effort over fences and after winning at the first attempt by 13 lengths at Towcester, he was only beaten by just over a length here over course and distance last time out.
Results suggest that he gets on well enough with today’s jockey and that the trip will be fine for him and as this looks a weaker contest than last time out, Moscow Me is the likeliest winner in my mind at 7/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…
Road To Respect / Moscow Me @ 6.22/1 (13/8 & 7/4 : Betway)
Road To Respect / Kerryhead Storm @ 10.81/1 (13/8 & 7/2 : Betbright, Betfair, Hills & SkyBet)
Bellow Mome / Moscow Me @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Betway)
Bellow Mome / Kerryhead Storm @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : generally)