Stat of the Day, 29th December 2015
Monday’s Result :
3.40 Leicester : Prairie Town @ 7/1 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Held up towards rear, well beaten after 5th)
Tuesday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
What A Dream @ 9/2 BOG
This 9 yr old gelding has been revitalised since a move North to Alison Hamilton’s yard less than 20 miles from Kelso and the introduction of jockey Jamie Hamilton (Alison’s nephew) along with a tongue tie and cheekpieces. Together this trainer/jockey/horse/equipment combo has finished 22611 in five starts, the first of which was a runner-up finish over this track and trip.
What A Dream now seeks a hat-trick after winning both starts this season, initially scoring by 10 lengths off the back of a 31 week break before a 3 lengths victory 11 days later (and seven weeks ago) last time out. Both races were over 2m 4.5f at Ayr and he stayed on well on both occasions, suggesting the small step back up in trip shouldn’t inconvenience him too much.
That win last time out not only means he’s in good nick/form, but it also makes him of statistical interest to me, as male, Class 3/4 runners, aged 6 to 9 yrs old who won a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out in the previous 11 to 150 days are 289/1286 (22.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 274.1pts (+21.3% ROI) since the start of 2008.
Now, I appreciate that not everyone is too keen on backing 160+ runners a year from one system, so I’m going to offer you seven angles relating to today’s contest that will break the original dataset down to levels you might be more comfortable with, such as…
- Chasers are 279/1233 (22.6% SR) for 264.7pts (+21.5% ROI)
- Those who last ran 11 to 50 days ago are 270/1151 (23.5% SR) for 281.3pts (+24.4% ROI)
- Those rated (OR) 95 to 130 are 250/1097 (22.8% SR) for 293.9pts (+26.8% ROI)
- Those priced 11/4 to 14/1 are 175/933 (18.8% SR) for 307.5pts (+33% ROI)
- 9 yr olds are 60/261 (23% SR) for 130.5pts (+50% ROI)
- On heavy ground, they are 36/115 (31.3% SR) for 45.6pts (+39.6% ROI)
- Here at Kelso, they are 14/46 (30.4% SR) for 22.6pts (+49.1% ROI)
All of the above are logical filters that improve the ROI enabling us to maximise our returns, and if you want a micro-system with around 80 bets per year, you could do a lot worse than backing Chasers rated 95 to 130, running 11 to 50 days after their last run and now priced at 11/4 to 12/1. Such runners are 138/634 (21.8% SR) for profits of 347.5pts (+54.8% ROI), of which…
- 9 yr olds are 29/129 (22.5% SR) for 120.9pts (+93.7% ROI)
- Heavy ground runners are 17/46 (37% SR) for 52.9pts (+115.1% ROI) and
- those running here at Kelso are 6/20 (30% SR) for 21.7pts (+108.5% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 9.40pm is…
A 1pt win bet on What A Dream and that’s at 9/2 BOG with any one of at least ten firms offering this price, so I advise you to…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS