Stat of the Day, 31st December 2015
Wednesday’s Result :
3.15 Lingfield : Kristal Hart @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn on morning of race due to abcess)
Thursday’s runner goes in the…
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Battle Dust @ 9/4 BOG
Battle Dust appears to be in fine fettle at present, finishing 121 in his last three appearances. He closed off his PTP career with a win over 3 miles on heavy ground when carrying 12 st 2lbs to a 5 lengths victory at Dungarvan in January.
He was next seen as recently as six weeks ago when making his debut under Rules at Southwell, where he stayed on well and finished strongly on soft ground, but the line came too quickly for him, despite it being a 3m slog first up.
The ground was worse for his only other outing, when he needed every inch of the 2m 7.5f on heavy ground at Chepstow 26 days ago to just get home and the manner of both runs suggest the extra 2 furlongs today should be right up his street. He’s 1 from 1 with today’s jockey and has already demonstrated a firm liking for bottomless ground.
Another step into the unknown today, as he makes a handicap debut, but his trainer Kim Bailey has shown in the past that he can get his ‘cappers to win first time up, as since 2008 his NH hcp debutants are 14/105 (13.3% SR) for 30.9pts (+29.4% ROI) profit, and with today’s race in focus, those runners are…
- 13/90 (14.4% SR) for 42.8pts (+47.5% ROI) when rated at 120 or lower
- 11/83 (13.3% SR) for 36pts (+43.4% ROI) at the ages of 4 to 6
- 9/90 (11.3% SR) for 31.7pts (+39.6% ROI) over hurdles
- 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 30.6pts (+55.7% ROI) when sent off at 8/1 or shorter
- 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 52.1pts (+650.8% ROI) on heavy ground
Kim’s 4-6 yo hcp hurdle debutants priced at 8/1 and shorter are 8/32 (25% SR) for 29.4pts (+92% ROI), with all 8 winners coming from the 27 (29.6% SR) runners rated 90-120 with the resultant 34.4pts profit equating to some 127.6% of stakes invested.
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.40pm is…
A 1pt win bet on Battle Dust and that’s at 9/4 BOG with any one of at least half a dozen firms, so I advise you to…
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