Stat of the Day, 30th December 2015
Tuesday’s Result :
3.00 Kelso : What A Dream @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, outpaced before 3 out, rallied next, no extra approaching last)
Wednesday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Kristal Hart @ 9/2 BOG
This 6yr old mare is a former course and distance winner with three wins from nine races over today’s 10f trip, has won three times from seven under today’s jockey Liam Keniry and hails from the in-form yard of Neil Mulholland, who in the last seven weeks is 17/94 (18.1% SR) for 28.2pts (+30% ROI) profit.
On the All-Weather in that time frame, he has 7 winners from 11 (63.6% SR) for 47.8pts (+434.6% ROI) with a 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) record at Class 6 generating 34.6pts at an ROI of 384%, whilst his A/W handicappers are also 5 from 9, but this time for 35.2pts (+391.4% ROI). And of the 11 runners, Liam Keniry has 5 wins from 6 983.3% SR) for 39pts (+649.8% ROI)
Neil Mulholland is one of a rare selection of trainers who are profitable to follow in two codes, namely NH and A/W and if you backed all of his runners over the last three years from both codes, you’d have backed 154 winners from 969 runners at a strike rate of 15.9% and a £10 wager on each of them would have netted you a cool £2987 at an ROI of 30.8%.
Of those 969 runners, those running on the A/W are 25/109 (22.9% SR) for 101.5pts (+93.1% ROI) which (with today’s contest firmly in mind) can be further analysed as follows…
- those running within 7 weeks of their last outing are 21/80 (26.3% SR) for 98.8pts (+123.5% ROI)
- handicappers are 21/79 (26.6% SR) for 108pts (+136.7% ROI)
- Class 6/7 runners are 18/68 (26.5% SR) for 91.4pts (+134.5% ROI)
- those with a rating of 45 to 68 are 18/66 (27.3% SR) for 115.2pts (+174.6% ROI)
- those ridden by Liam Keniry are 18/64 (28.1% SR) for 111.9pts (+174.8% ROI)
- over distances of 8.5f to 12f : 15/62 (24.2% SR) for 88.1pts (+142.2% ROI)
- 6 yr olds are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 37.1pts (+161.2% ROI)
And a slightly broader micro-system based on the above categories is: 3 to 8 yrs old in Class 5/6 handicaps over 8.5f to 16.5f on the A/W off marks of 45 to 68 within 7 weeks of their last run. Such horses are 12/32 (37.5% SR) for 114.7pts (+358.6% ROI) over the last three years with Liam Keniry riding 11 winners from 21 (52.4% SR) for 121.1pts at an ROI of some 576.4%
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 12.10 am is…
A 1pt win bet on Kristal Hart and that’s at 9/2 BOG with Hills, whilst the same price is on offer at Betfred, Ladbrokes & Totesport, but none of those three go BOG until morning, so I advise you to…
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