Stat of the Day, 1st January 2016
Thursday’s Result :
1.10 Warwick : Battle Dust @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (With leader, led narrowly after 1st, headed narrowly 4 out (usual 5 out), ridden after 3 out, regained lead before next, joined last, headed flat, kept on, just held)
Friday’s runner goes in the…
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Village Vic @ 7/2 BOG
Village Vic comes here off the back of a hat trick of handicap chase victories, the latest of which was a 4.5 length success over this course and distance in a similar Grade 3 contest on soft ground 20 days ago.
His trainer, Philip Hobbs is in good form with 7 winners from 19 in the last fortnight, whilst today’s jockey Richard Johnson is 8 from 32 in the same time period, whilst together Hobbs & Johnson have 5 winners and 3 placers from just 10 runners over the fortnight.
Over the last four years, Cheltenham has been a happy hunting ground for the Hobbs’ runners, especially under today’s conditions. Over the 4 years, his runners here priced at 6/4 to 9/1 are 30/124 (24.2% SR) for 66.4pts (+53.6% ROI) and more specifically, they are…
- 29/120 (24.2% SR) for 67.5pts (+56.3% ROI) from male runners
- 26/93 (28% SR) for 66.7pts (+71.7% ROI) under Richard Johnson
- 24/91 (26.4% SR) for 70.6pts (+77.6% ROI) beyond 2m4f
- 21/83 (25.3% SR) for 70.9pts (+85.4% ROI) in handicaps
- 20/67 (29.9% SR) for 71.9pts (+107.3% ROI) in chases
- 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 23.7pts (+55.2% ROI) at Class 1
- 13/39 (33.3% SR) for 36.3pts (+93.1% ROI) won last time out
In addition to the above, it should also be worth mentioning that over the last seven seasons, Philip Hobbs LTO winners returning to the scene of a past Course & Distance success are 12 from 51 (23.5% SR) for 19.5pts (+38.3% ROI) in handicaps, of which…
- chasers are 7/35 (20% SR) for 15.2pts (+43.4% ROI)
- Richard Johnson is 6/24 (25% SR) for 5pts (+20.8% ROI)
- and runners here at Cheltenham are 2/5 (40% SR) for 13.12pts (+262.4%)
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 2.00 am is…
A 1pt win bet on Village Vic and that’s at 7/2 BOG with Hills, whilst Ladbrokes are offering the same price, but don’t go BOG until the morning of the race, so I advise you to…
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