Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2016
Friday’s Result :
1.55 Cheltenham : Village Vic @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/2 (Made virtually all, mistake 2nd, clear last, driven flat, stayed on gamely to win by three lengths)
Saturday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Shades of Midnight @ 9/2 BOG
(I). My starting point is trainer Donald Whillans recent record here at Ayr, with his 5 winners from 25 (20% SR) runners here over the last four years that have generated 18.1pts profit at an ROI of 90.5% and of those 20 runners…
- handicappers are 5/19
- Donald’s son Callum has ridden 4 winners from 17
- hurdlers are 4/16
- those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 5 from 10.
And when Callum rides handicap hurdlers priced at 8/1 and shorter for his dad Donald : 3 winners and 2 placers from 6 (311521) for 18.8pts profit.
(II). Then we should look at the yard’s success on heavy ground. And over the last four years Donald’s heavy ground runners priced at 10/1 and shorter are 6/32 (18.8% SR) for 14.4pts (+45.1% ROI) with handicappers winning 5 of 29, hurdlers winning 5 of 17 and 3 of his 6 runners here at Ayr have won.
Donald’s heavy ground handicap hurdlers are 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 21.6pts (+144.3% ROI), of which son Callum is 4/13 for 23.6pts and the Ayr runners are 2 from 4 for 16.3pts.
Now, if you think the above pair of sets of data relied on sample sizes that were a touch on the light side, then I’ll finish off with some stats relating to over 3,000 runners…
(III). 3,081 runners over the last 8 years to be exact! That’s how many times Midnight Legend‘s offspring have raced to date and they can be backed blindly to generate decent profit, as there has been 443 winners (14.4% SR) producing level stakes profits of 668.8pts at an impressive ROI of 21.7%.
Of course, not everyone wants to back approaching 400 horses per year from just one angle, no matter how profitable it might be, so in just four steps related to today’s contest, I’m going to reduce the yearly number of bets down to 200-ish to 55-ish to 40-ish and then to less than 20. Stop and get off at the point that suits you best!
So…Midnight Legend progeny are 443/3081 (14.4% SR) for 668.8pts (+21.7% ROI), of which…
…Handicappers are 253/1653 (15.3% SR) for 578.7pts (+35% ROI), of which…
…Those running on soft / heavy ground are 85/453 (18.8% SR) for 206.8pts (+45.6% ROI), of which…
…6 to 9 yr olds are 65/322 (20.2% SR) for 211.8pts (+65.8% ROI), of which…
…Hurdlers are 29/136 (21.3% SR) for 90.2pts (+66.4% ROI).
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.35pm is…
A 1pt win bet on Shades of Midnight and that’s at 9/2 BOG with any one of over half a dozen firms, so as always I advise you to…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS