Double Dutch, 2nd January 2016

Double Dutch, 2nd January 2016

We were less then two lengths shy of landing a 15/1 third success in four days yesterday, which would have been an excellent way to start the New Year, but Rear Admiral’s defeat at Catterick prevented that from happening.

As it was, he was actually only third home in a pretty tight contest that I’ve no complaints about, other than it meant Precious Ground’s earlier impressive 7-lengths success counted for very little.

Friday’s results were as follows:

Precious Ground : WON at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Buckboru : 6th at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Rear Admiral : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Roxyfet : 4th at 2/1 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
769 winning selections from 2754 = 27.92%
240 winning bets in 713 days = 33.66%

Stakes: 1425.00pts
Returns: 1505.04pts
P/L : +80.04pts (+5.62% ROI)

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1.40 Chelmsford :

A small field that looks like being a contest between a pair of LTO winners. Kinsgley Klarion comes here seeking a 4-timer after a course and distance win here just over six weeks ago was followed up by a win over 5f at Wolverhampton before winning again over today’s 6f at Lingfield a fortnight ago defying a big step up in class to C2.

Back down in Class 4 company, Kinsgley Klarion will be well fancied to defy a 4lb rise and 9/4 BOG isn’t too skinny for a horse aiming to go to 4 from 4 on the A/W.

A similar 9/4 BOG pricetag awaits backers of Alshaqee who gets 5lbs from the above runner, as he makes his handicap bow. His yard not only do well with their handicap debutants in general, but they do especially well with those stepping up in trip, as this one does today.

Alshaqee was a winner here over 5f last time out, so we know he handles the track well enough here and that run saw him beat Krystallite by half a length with the runner-up going on to win next time out. That next time out win for Krystallite had Aguerooo back in second place and that one has since completed a 6-day hat trick by winning at Southwell (as a Stat Picks selection!) yesterday.

Based on those sets of results, an opening mark of 77 should be within Alshaqee‘s scope.


3.40 Southwell :

Quite often in these amateur rider events, it’s as much about the rider (if not more so!) than it is about the horse and whenever you see Serena Brotherton’s name on the list of jockeys in such contests, then at least a second glance is required.  That said, her mount Hall of Beauty has chances anyway at around 3/1 BOG.

The step up in trip from 1m6f should benefit this 4 yr old filly who was outpaced in the run to the line last time out, finishing as runner-up here just over a fortnight ago and bearing in mind, trainer  Mick Appleby’s excellent form at this venue, Hall of Beauty is expected to be involved at the business end of this race.

The one she’ll probably have to beat to succeed looks like being Vivacissimo, who after 14 starts is lightly raced for a 9 yr old. Like Hall of Beauty, he found 1m6f a little on the sharp side as he too was a runner-up on this track three weeks ago.

The step up in trip won’t cause any stamina issues for a horse that has won over 2m4f in a chase and also won a hurdle contest over today’s trip last summer. He runs off the same mark as last time out, but with today’s jockey taking a further 5lbs off his back, Vivacissimo should have an excellent chance here at a generally available 11/4 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Alshaqee  / Vivacissimo @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : generally)
Alshaqee / Hall of Beauty @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Kinsgley Klarion / Vivacissimo @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Stan James)
Kinsgley Klarion / Hall of Beauty @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Stan James)

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