Stat of the Day, 8th January 2016
Thursday’s Result :
1.05 Towcester : Chankillo @ 3/1 BOG PU at 6/1 (Held up, reminder after 3rd, mistake next, jumped slowly and struggling 5th, not fluent and behind 6th, pulled up before 7th)
Friday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Iron Butterfly @ 11/4 BOG
This 7yr old mare comes here off the back of win at this very venue four weeks ago, when she won by five lengths over 3m 0.5 furlongs, so her stamina really shouldn’t be questioned here, no matter how wet it gets.
She has won three of fiteen starts over hurdles, but it’s interesting to note that she’s 3/6 (50% SR) for 10.77pts (+179.4% ROI) profit when running at Class 4 level going left handed some 18 to 45 days after her last run, all of which apply today.
She has one and one place from three heavy ground runs and is 2 from 2 over trips of 2m2.5f to 2m3.5f as well as having the same 2/2 record here on Town Moor including a course and distance success in the past.
And since the start of 2012, former course and distance handicap hurdlers who are also LTO winners are 181/843 (21.5% SR) for 147.8pts (+17.5% ROI), further analysed in respect of today’s selection as follows…
- those running over 2m1f to 3m are 108/474 (22.8% SR) for 185.4pts (+39.1% ROI)
- those racing 11 to 30 days after their last run are 22.8% SR) for 190.5pts (+41.7% ROI)
- those running on ground deemed soft or worse (currently heavy, soft in places here) are 78/303 (25.7% SR) for 49.5pts (+16.3% ROI)
And I’ve not given you a micro-system for a while, so how about… former course and distance handicap hurdlers who are also LTO winners competing over 2m1f to 3m on soft/heavy ground 11 to 60days after that last winning run? Such horses are 30/120 (25% SR) over the last 4 years generating 67.2pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 56%.
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.05pm is…
A 1pt win bet on Iron Butterfly and that’s at 11/4 BOG with Betfair’s Sportsbook or Coral, whilst later this evening, you can always…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS