Stat of the Day, 9th January 2016
Friday’s Result :
1.20 Doncaster : Iron Butterfly @ 11/4 BOG (2.48/1 after R4) WON at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, led 4 out, clear before last to win by 6 lengths comfortably)
Saturday’s runner goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Hollywood All Star @ 5/1 BOG
Trainer Graeme McPherson’s record in NH racing over the last 6 years shows he is profitable to follow blindly with 72 winners from 741 (9.7% SR) for profits of 176.8pts at an ROI of 23.9% and those runners can be broken down as follows…
- handicaps : 53/468 (11.3% SR) for 219.8pts (+47% ROI)
- running 21 to 30 days since last race : 20/194 (10.3% SR) for 56.8pts (+29.3% ROI)
- soft ground : 21/152 (13.8% SR) for 109.4pts (+72% ROI)
- over 2m : 12/105 (11.4% SR) for 77.2pts (+73.5% ROI)
- class 3 : 10/82 (12.2% ROI) for 73.8pts (+90% ROI)
- ridden by Archie Bellamy : 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 18.1pts (+201.3% ROI)
Jockey Archie Bellamy is in prime form at present, winning 4 of his 6 races over the last month, including steering Hollywood All Star to back to back successes on testing ground.
And the horse comes here having won three of his last six and seeking a hat trick after those back to back wins mentioned above. Those wins came within a week of each other last month at Bangor and Uttoxeter on soft and heavy ground.
The latest run was a 10 lengths success at Uttoxeter 22 days ago and since 2012, male handicap hurdlers running 3 to 60 days after an LTO win by more than 4 lengths in a handicap hurdle, went on to win again on 271 of 1043 (26% SR) occasions, generating 234 pts profit at an ROI of 22.4%
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 12.20am is…
A 1pt win bet on Hollywood All Star and that’s at 5/1 BOG with any one of a half dozen firms. To see your preferred bookie’s prices, you can always…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS