Stat of the Day, 12th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2016

Monday’s Result :

4.00 Wolverhampton : Little Stampy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway 2f out, led inside final furlong, ridden and ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Tuesday’s runner goes in the…

2.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Celtic Intrigue @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

The trainer : David Bridgwater…

Over the last two years on heavy ground, his NH runners are 14 from 49 (28.6% SR) for 15.6pts at an ROI of 31.9% and depite that being a fairly small sample size, I’ve found a dozen profitable angles that all apply here…

  1.  males are 13/44 (29.6% SR) for 18.3pts (+41.5% ROI)
  2. those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 14/34 (41.2% SR) for 30.6pts (+90.1% ROI)
  3. Class 4 & 5 runners are 11/34 (32.4% SR) for 9.09pts (+26.7% ROI)
  4. handicappers are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 23.9pts (+82.2% ROI)
  5. chasers are 11/25 (44% SR) for 22.1pts (+88.4% ROI)
  6. 7 to 10 yr olds are 11/21 (52.4% SR) for 34.8pts (+165.6% ROI)
  7. those rated (OR) 80 to 115 are 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 19.7pts (+103.6% ROI)
  8. those ridden by Tom Scudamore are 7/16 (43.8% SR) for 18.5pts (+115.6% ROI)
  9. those who last raced 45 to 365 days ago are 6/9 (66.7% SR) for 27.5pts (+305% ROI)
  10. 9 yr olds are 4/5 (80% SR) for 12.04pts (+240.8% ROI)
  11. LTO winners are 3/5 (60% SR) for 1.89pts (+37.7% ROI)
  12. those who won by 4 to 15 lengths LTO are 3/3 (100% SR) for 3.89pts (+129.5% ROI)

And the jockey Tom Scudamore…

…is 11 from 40 (27.5% SR) for 71pts (+177.5% ROI) her at Ludlow over the last four years and of those 40 rides, he is…

  • 8/24 (33.33% SR) for 40.6pts (+169.1% ROI) at Classes 4 & 5
  • 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 12.7pts (+66.7% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 3/5 (60% SR) for 2.7pts (+54% ROI) on heavy ground

Which brings us to Celtic Intrigue

…a horse, who had a career record of 0 from 12 under Tom George : a trainer of undoubted talent, but just couldn’t the best from this one. The horse took a break from racing, moved to David Bridgwater and has won all three of his races since. All three were handicap chases, ridden by Tom Scudamore. He’s 2 from 2 at today’s trip and coming off a break of 177 days shouldn’t be an issue, as he won on his yard debut despite not racing for 723 days!

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 5.50pm is…

A 1pt win bet on Celtic Intrigue and that’s at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365, Betbright, BetVictor and/or Paddy Power, whilst Betway offer the same, but are non-BOG until morning with a minimum stake of £10. To see your preferred bookie’s prices, you can always…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ludlow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.

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