Double Dutch, 13th January 2016

Double Dutch, 13th January 2016

Another good day for us yesterday, albeit at the lower end of the odds ranges, as we came away with two winners, a runner-up and a non-runner after playing the very first and very last races of the day.

More Spice beat Secret Millionaire by half a lengtrh with their rivals well beaten in the opening 5f sprint to set us off with a 2/1 winner and the bonus of a 4/1 exacta, before a wait approaching three hours before Ludlow’s closing bumper.

These bumpers aren’t the usual type of race I go for, but on a day of poor quality racing it was our best option, yet after my preferred option Mac Gregory was withdrawn, I feared the worst. Not only did we lose one of our two chances of success, Alf n Dor‘s odds were reduced by 35% via the Rule 4.

We needn’t have worried, though, as despite showing lots of signs of greenness and wandering around considerably over the final quarter mile, he fairly romped home by 21 lengths and after a flood of money for the eventual third placed horse, Handpicked, our SP of 15/8 was better than ther R4 price.

This left us with a double at 7.63/1 and a single at 2/1, a 4/1 exacta and for those doing the forecast doubles, a nice 12.92/1 payout. Hat-trick landed, can we get 4?

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

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More Spice : WON at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Secret Millionaire : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid £5.00 here
Alf n Dor : WON at 15/8 (adv 11/4 = 9/5 after R4)
Mac Gregory : non-runner (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
781 winning selections from 2789 = 27.96%
243 winning bets in 722 days = 33.56%

Stakes: 1443.00pts
Returns: 1531.73pts
P/L : +88.73pts (+6.15% ROI)


1.10 Taunton :

Petite Power (11/4 BOG) is likely to be popular today after catching the eye is an energy sapping hurdles debut at Leicester five weeks ago. He finished as a 1.25 length runner-up that day, despite coming off the back of a six month absence. He’ll strip fitter for having had the run, will benefit from having tried hurdles for the first time and the way he ran last time suggested the 2m 4.5f wasn;t long enough for him, so today’s 3m could very well be more suitable.

Should Petite Power not get the trip though, that’s not a fear for A Plein Temps, who represents the in-form duo of Harry Fry and Noel Fehily. This horse stays 3m2f and was a runner-up at Exeter over 2m7f in treacherous conditions last time out. Although beaten by 9 lengths that day, he wasn’t really ridden out once headed and still had the rest of the field well strung out behind him.

Harry Fry’s hurdlers have a 34% strike rate (15/44) over the last couple of months (8/25 ridden by Fehily) and the yard also fare well with those runners who are their only runners of the day and with those stats in mind, a bet on A Plein Temps at 11/4 BOG might be a good decision.


2.55 Chelmsford :

This looks very much like a match between a pair both trading around the 2/1 BOG mark this morning, both trained by the in-form Stuart Williams who also has a decent record here at Chelmsford.

Pactolus has won three of his last six starts (2 of last three) and is 2 from 4 on this track, 2 from 3 at 9.5/10 furlongs, 4 from 9 oing left handed and has won one of two efforts over course and distance, that C&D win was two starts ago off a mark of 75 and he’s well weighted today with his jockey taking 5lbs off a mark of 78.

My slight preference is for top weight Oakley Girl, who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Lingfield and Wolverhampton either side of December. Raised 6lbs for a comfortable 6 lengths win last time out, she drops down in class to run here defending a 3 from 3 record on the A/W (2/2 at this trip).

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows…

Petite Power / Oakley Girl @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Petite Power / Pactolus @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)
A Plein Temps / Oakley Girl @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfred, Betway & Totesport)
A Plein Temps / Pactolus @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)

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